Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Ludlow and Sedgefield for his four stats-based selections on Wednesday, October 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LUDLOW 2.10
ENTHUSED (system – James Owen handicappers)
Simply backing all James Owen-trained runners in handicaps would have found 13 winners from 54 bets (24.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £2.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.73). That profit is hardly earth-shattering but we’d have made £22.13 by taking the best early price the evening before racing and ENTHUSED might be able to bounce back from a modest effort at Market Rasen last time where the ground was reportedly too slow.
SEDGEFIELD 2.55
MY LITTLE TONI (system – Donald McCain, handicap chase debut)
Since the beginning of 2021, Donald McCain is 16 from 52 with his handicap chase debutants (30.8%) for a profit of £42.43 to the usual £1 stake. Point winner MY LITTLE TONI, whose sole success under Rules came at Sedgefield, has had a wind operation since disappointing in a mares’ handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter in late July and can make a winning start over the larger obstacles.
SEDGEFIELD 3.30
BALKOTIC (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston does well when riding for Micky Hammond, scoring on 38 of her 232 mounts (16.4%) for a profit of £63.35 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 24.53). BALKOTIC hasn’t shown much under stable conditional Joshua Thompson in his last three starts but is unbeaten in two starts for Smith-Chaston and could bounce back here.
SEDGEFIELD 4.05
OCEANS RED (system – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, Class 5 handicap chases)
The Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero yard has a useful recent record with their low-grade (Class 5) handicap chasers, scoring with 30 of the 138 qualifiers (21.7%) since the start of 2020 for a profit of £57.54 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those returning from a break of at least six weeks were 13 from 40 for a profit of £72.20. OCEANS RED has had a wind operation since disappointing at Bangor back in May and the six-year-old is taken to repeat his wide-margin victory in this race 12 months ago.
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Related
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