Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads Musselburgh, Warwick, Dundalk and Kempton for his four stats-based picks on Wednesday, November 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
MUSSELBURGH 1.40
MISS ARABAELLA (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing all Sandy Thomson-trained runners in November, December and January would have found 99 winners from 491 bets (20.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £264.98 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 80.35, A/E = 1.23). MISS ARABELLA found only one too good in a Kelso bumper on her reappearance and might be able to reward each-way support at a big price on her hurdles debut.
WARWICK 1.50
HURLERONTHEDITCH (system – Kim Bailey handicap chasers, first run after a wind operation)
Since wind operations had to be declared (late January 2018), Kim Bailey is 12 from 36 with his handicap chasers on their first start following the procedure. He had a 10-1 winner on this angle at Warwick yesterday and perhaps HURLERONTHEDITCH can follow suit.
DUNDALK 2.00
RHASIDAT (system – Mehmas, Polytrack nurseries).
Progeny of the sire Mehmas have a 15 from 59 record in nursery handicaps on Polytrack and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £93.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. RHASIDAT hinted at ability in three runs on turf and can take a step forward on her all-weather/handicap debut.
KEMPTON 5.00
TIMETOBENICE (system – Marco Botti, all-weather)
TIMETOBENICE showed some ability when mid-division in a 7f restricted maiden at Leicester in June – her sole run for David O’Meara – and looks interesting on her debut for Marco Botti. Her new trainer does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially on the all-weather, with 18 of the 91 qualifiers winning for a profit of £38.83 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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