Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 5-1 Chepstow winner THE KING OF RYHOPE on Tuesday and has four stats-based picks on Wednesday, November 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 1.30
IRRELEVANT (system – Lee Carter, stable switchers on the all-weather, recent run)
Lee Carter has a 13 from 136 record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, though we’d have made a loss of £35.50 had we backed them blind. However, those he ran on the all-weather after a recent outing (within 28 days) were seven from 32 for a profit of £30.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. IRRELEVANT, the second of two qualifiers today (the other is ETON COLLEGE in the 12.30), was a game winner at Kempton for Richard Hughes on October 16th and is taken to make a winning start for his new yard.
LINGFIELD 2.05
DEBORA’S DREAM (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Sioux Nation showed a preference for small fields during his racing career, with three of his four wins coming in fields of eight or fewer runners and the other when racing in a group of just four runners on his flank when landing the 17-runner Norfolk Stakes in 2017. His progeny have also performed best when faced with small fields, with the juveniles landing 43 of their 198 starts (21.7%) in fields of ten or fewer runners for a profit of £114.29 to a £1 level stake at SP. DEBORA’S DREAM, a close-up third of five in a 7f maiden at Chelmsford last time when ridden with more restraint than the two who beat him, can get off the mark in this seven-runner contest.
FAKENHAM 2.45
BRANDISOVA (system – Lucy Wadham, Fakenham)
Simply backing all Lucy Wadham-trained runners at Fakenham this century would have found 63 winners from 248 runners (25.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £53.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. BRANDISOVA was a winner over course and distance on her penultimate start and can be forgiven her subsequent Huntingdon defeat as she jumped out to her left on the right-handed track. The return to this left-handed venue, where’s she’s unbeaten in two starts, will obviously suit and it’s worth taking a chance on her fitness after a 205-day layoff.
LINGFIELD 3.38
KITTY FOYLE (system – Simon & Ed Crisford, handicap debutants)
The Crisford yard has a 68 from 269 record (25.3%) with handicap debutants for a profit of £14.68 and those who had their initial handicap start on Lingfield’s Polytrack recorded form figures of 216P11610122115 (7-15) for a profit of £12.73. Those who were running within three weeks of their latest start had form figures of 111121 (5-6) and perhaps KITTY FOYLE can add to those gains.
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