Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been among the winners already this week and has three more stats-based picks on Wednesday, November 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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WARWICK 12.45
GRIZZLY JAMES (system – Venetia Williams, first run after a wind operation)
Venetia Williams has a 12 from 45 record with horses having their first run back after wind surgery and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £53.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Had we only bet the handicappers who were returning from a break of 150 days or longer we’d have won 11 of our 26 bets and made a profit of £68.58. GRIZZLY JAMES has shown little in four starts for Williams but might have needed time to acclimatise after leaving France and is worth chancing on his first start since March.
DUNDALK 4.30
KAMPALA BEACH (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, Flat only)
Backing all progeny of the sire Belardo over one mile or further on the Flat (Turf or all-weather), excluding the juveniles, would have found 59 winners from 364 bets (16.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £97.76 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 43.83).
KAMPALA BEACH finished a creditable fifth of 14 over course and distance in August – his only previous Polytrack outing – and should have more to offer now returned to the all-weather for the bang in-form Mick Halford yard (five winners from 15 runners in the past fortnight).
WARWICK 2.15
WALK IN CLOVER (system – Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, finished fifth or worse last time out)
Dan Skelton, like his mentor Paul Nicholls, does well when using first-time cheekpieces and the best punting angle is to side with those who finished out of the frame (fifth or worse) on their latest outing. Hidden Heroics won at 7-1 on this system at Exeter on Monday and perhaps WALK IN CLOVER, the 5-2 third favourite in this four-runner line-up at the time of writing, can follow suit.
KEMPTON 4.50
ANNIE GALE (system – No Nay Never, Kempton (AW), stall 6 or lower)
James Fanshawe’s ANNIE GALE could be worth chancing on her debut in this 6f novice contest. Progeny of her sire No Nay Never are 15 from 71 (+£40.75) at Kempton when drawn in stall 6 or lower and several of those winners were making their racecourse debuts. She’s a half-sister to Magical Dreamer who was unbeaten over trip this on Polytrack, including a course win on her all-weather debut and second career start.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 16 November 2022
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Related
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