Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Ascot, Kempton and Wolverhampton for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, May 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
WOLVRHAMPTON 4.10
FIDELIUS (system – Robert Cowell, 5f handicaps, first run since gelded)
Sprint expert Robert Cowell has a good record with his 5f handicappers on their first start after a gelding operation, scoring with nine of the 36 qualifiers since 2012 for a profit of £56.29 to a £1 level stake at SP. That 25% strike-rate improves to 37% on the all-weather (seven winners from 19 runners, +£44.29) and FIDELIUS can keep the ball rolling.
ASCOT 5.10
TWO TEMPTING (system – New Bay, top three finish last time out)
Progeny of New Bay tend to hold their form well and simply backing the sire’s runners who finished in the top three on their latest outing would have found 138 winners from 515 bets (26.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £133.87 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 105.2, A/E = 1.31). TWO TEMPTING, who gamely landed a 14-runner handicap at Chelmsford last time, was placed over 7f at Ascot on his final start last term, and he can follow up.
KEMPTON 9.00
AULIS (system – Ralph Beckett, 3yo handicappers on second start since gelded)
Ralph Beckett’s AULIS is in my tracker after he did too much too soon into the headwind on his reappearance at Doncaster on Lincoln Day and could go well now up in trip for his handicap debut. That comeback effort came on the back of a gelding operation and his trainer does well with his runners having their second start after being gelded, especially with three-year-olds in handicap company. He’s won with 23 of the 95 qualifiers for a profit of £71.86 to a £1 level stake at SP, including form figures of 459621111111 (7-12) here at Kempton (+£46.85). Beckett’s yard hasn’t hit top gear yet, but those course stats are persuasive.
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