Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Catterick and the evening all-weather meeting at Kempton for his three stats-based picks on Wednesday, March 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CATTERICK 2.45
KINGS JUSTICE (system – damsire Midnight Legend, chases)
Progeny of the sire Midnight Legend tend to thrive over fences and it’s the same story with horses who have Midnight Legend as their damsire. Backing the qualifiers would have found 37 winners from 211 bets (17.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £55.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. KINGS JUSTICE has recorded form figures of 212 (1-3) over today’s course and distance since the cheekpieces were fitted, going down by just half a length on his latest outing, and should go well again.
KEMPTON 4.55
ANGELICA K (system – made the running on round course at Newcastle (AW) last time out)
It remains extremely difficult to make all over trips of 1m2f or further on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and those who attempt to do so, regardless of where they finished last time, often make good bets on the Flat (turf or all-weather) at the next time of asking, winning 90 of their 630 starts (14.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £108.26 to a £1 level stake at SP. ANGELICA K, placed at 33-1 here at Kempton on her debut in January, faded into sixth place after cutting out the early running at Newcastle last time, and might do better back at this venue, despite the obvious suspicion that we won’t see the best of her until handicapping.
KEMPTON 5.30
BIG R (system – Cotai Glory, geldings on the all-weather)
Gelded progeny of the sire Cotai Glory have a 40 from 257 record on the all-weather (15.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £94.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. BIG R, who contributed with a course and distance win on his penultimate start, had excuses at Wolverhampton last time (always trapped wide) and can bounce back from a handy draw this time.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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