Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 15-2 AW winner LAKOTA BRAVE on Tuesday and has five stats-based picks at Cheltenham, Huntingdon, Kempton and Newcastle on Wednesday, March 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 1.30
BALLYBURN (system – Cheltenham Festival, easy winner in Ireland last time out)
Since 2016 backing Cheltenham festival runners who won ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’ in Ireland on their latest start would have found 28 winners from 115 runners (24.4% strike-rate, prior to Tuesday’s racing) for a profit of £38.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those aged six or younger were 16 from 60 for a profit of £52.92. BALLYBURN was a most impressive at the Dublin Racing Festival and is going to be very difficult to beat.
HUNTINGDON 1.50
MAJESTIC JAMEELA (system – Postponed, 4yo+, turf)
Progeny of the sire Postponed, aged four or older, have a good record on turf whether running on the Flat or over jumps. The Flat turf runners are ten from 62 for a profit of £15.00 to a £1 level stake at SP, the bumper runners are two from eight (+£4.13) and the hurdlers are eight from 26 (+£8.25). MAJESTOC JAMEELA contributed with a 9-4 success at Plumpton last time and can follow up.
CHELTENHAM 2.10
STAY AWAY FAY (system – Brown Advisory, ran in Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out, British trained)
In the past ten years simply backing all runners in the Brown Advisory who prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race would have hit the winner on nine occasions. We’d have made a loss of £11.38 by backing all 63 qualifiers but the British-trained runners were six from 32 for a profit of £12.25 and STAY AWAY FAY, third in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day, is the only one who fits the bill this year.
NEWCASTLE 7.45
MATTY TOO (system – straight-track preference)
MATTY TOO has form figures in straight-course handicaps of 11454156918113 (6-14) including a solid third over 7f here on his final start for Ed Dunlop. He’s up in trip on his debut for Ian McInnes and after changing hands for 21,000gns last month and can again reward each-way support.
KEMPTON 8.00
ELECTRIC AVENUE (system – George Baker, 7f handicaps, Kempton AW)
Trainer George Baker has a fine record in 7f handicaps on Kempton’s Polytrack, scoring with 20 of the 111 qualifiers (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.38, A/E = 1.76). ELECTRIC AVENUE caught the eye of the stewards when fifth over 6f here in January on her third career start and wasn’t given a handicap mark until her 20-1 sixth of eight over the same track and trip next time. The step back up to 7f will suit and any market support will increase confidence.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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