Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew enjoyed place returns with Ten Commitments (20-1) & Dogged (12-1) on Tuesday and has four stats-based picks on Wednesday, June 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
LIMERICK 6.00
HANOI (system – New Bay handicappers, top three finished last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay tend to hold their form well and by simply backing those handicappers who had recorded a top three finish on their latest start we’d have won 94 of our 346 bets (27.2%) and made a profit of £126.55 (expected winners = 65.87, A/E = 1.43). HANOI has been knocking on the door of late, running third of 17 at Gowran Park last week, and can go two places better.
KEMPTON 6.40
ROSA APPLAUSE (System – low-drawn Lingfield AW winners next time out, AW again)
The inside of Lingfield’s Polytrack is rarely the place to be and horses who win from a low draw (stall 1 or 2) often make good bets when bidding to follow up, provided they are kept to an artificial surface. Since the beginning of 2018, the score is 120 winners from 448 bets (26.8%) for a profit of £55.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 100.50, A/E = 1.19). ROSA APPLAUSE, the mount of William Buick, took the inside route from stall 1 when bolting up in a 6f fillies’ novice contest at Lingfield last time and can double up.
KEMPTON 7.10
MALINKA (system – Ralph Beckett, fillies in AW handicaps)
Since 2019, Ralph Beckett has a 29 from 104 record his runners in fillies’ handicaps on the all-weather handicaps and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £43.08 (expected winners = 21.34 (A/E= 1.36). MALINKA bombed out at Windsor on her handicap debut, but her best effort came on Polytrack and the return to this surface can help her to get off the mark.
KEMPTON 7.40
ASSEMBLED (system – Iffraaj, Kempton AW, 1m3f+)
Backing progeny of Iffraaj over 1m3f at Kempton (AW) would have found 18 winners from 120 bets (15% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.20 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.39, A/E = 1.58). ASSEMBLED was only seventh of ten here last time but that run, his first for 190 days, would have been needed and the veteran is likely to do better today.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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