Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Leicester, Brighton and Southwell (all-weather) for five stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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LEICESTER 1.25
ELONGATE (system – Alice Haynes, handicap debut)
Alice Haynes has a five from 26 record with handicap debutants for a huge profit of £65.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Eight of the beaten horses made the frame and ELONGATE, who had shorter-priced stablemate Expeditious behind her when runner-up at Chelmsford last time, can go one better.
BRIGHTON 5.40
SILVERDALE (system – Hellvelyn all-weather to turf switch)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire Hellvelyn on turf, who ran on the all-weather last time out, would have found 23 winners from 182 bets (12.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £123.00 to a £1 stake. SILVERDALE, representing in-form Jonny Portman, will appreciate the return to slow turf after her modest run at Wolverhampton last month and could go well at a big price in first-time blinkers (20-1 at the time of writing).
SOUTHWELL 7.30
TOPLIGHT (system – Tony Carroll, second run for the yard, Class 6, AW)
Tony Carroll does well at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially in Class 6 all-weather contests. Since the beginning of 2018, he’s won with nine of the 35 qualifiers (25.7%) for a profit of £61.00. TOPLIGHT was a respectable fourth at Wolverhampton on last month’s stable debut and can go three places better under winning Arc rider Luke Morris.
SOUTHWELL 8.00
MERSEYSIDE (system – Kevin Ryan, Lope De Vega)
Kevin Ryan has done well with the progeny of sire Lope De Vega, having scored multiple wins with the likes of Mount Tahan, Flaming Spear, Ayutthaya, Weekend Offender and Roulston Scar. His full record with Lope De Vega progeny is 23 winners from 127 runners (18.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £10.40 to a £1 level stake at SP. MERSEYSIDE makes his stable debut after leaving France and could be worth chancing to small stakes.
SOUTHWELL 8.30
HAVEN LADY (system – Bellardo, 3yo+, 1m+)
Progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve from the age of three and when stepped up to a trip of 1m or further. Combining these two conditions in a system gives us 53 winners from 342 bets (15.5%) for a profit of £73.43 to the usual £1 stake. On Southwell’s Tapeta surface only, they recorded form figures of 11348642143 (3-11) for a profit of £10.00 and HAVEN LADY, beaten by a head into third over course and distance last time, should be on the premises again.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 4 October 2022
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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