Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Chepstow (jumps) and the Curragh (Flat) for his three statistical picks on Tuesday, October 31st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHEPSTOW 2.40
UNCLE ARTHUR (system – Fergal O’Brien, second run for the yard)
Fergal O’Brien has a respectable record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 50 of the 294 qualifiers (17% strike-rate). We’d have made a loss of £71.88 to a £1 level stake at SP had we backed them blind but those who were beaten when starting as favourite on their stable debut were 12 from 41 (29.3%) for a profit of £6.41. UNCLE ARTHUR unseated at the first fence when sent off as the 15-8 favourite for a handicap chase at Bangor on his stable debut earlier this month can recoup those losses now returned to hurdles.
CURRAGH 3.07
LORD ERSKINE (system – recent run)
LORD ERSKINE, a son of Fast Company, will relish today’s deep ground and the Harry Rogers-trained veteran, beaten by less than four lengths when ninth of 16 at Naas 16 days ago, usually performs well after a recent outing. Simply backing him when he last raced between one and 28 days ago would have seen us find nine winners from 32 bets for a profit of £60.35 to a £1 level stake at SP. His patient running style could be an asset in this amateur riders’ contest, as there’s a good chance some of the less experienced jockeys will go too fast for the conditions.
CHEPSTOW 3.15
THE KING OF RYHOPE (system – Malinas, jumps handicaps, young horses)
Younger progeny (aged seven or less) of the sire Malinas do well in handicap chases/hurdles, landing 121 of their 667 starts (18.1%) for a profit of £65.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. This improves to 19.7% (+£98.22) on ground judged to be good to soft or softer according to race times (75 winners from 381 bets). Dan Skelton’s THE KING OF RYHOPE, placed in Grade 2 novice hurdle company, can make a winning handicap debut this afternoon.
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