Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew enjoyed an each-way return with 16-1 shot HEATER on Monday and has four stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 10th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LEIECSTER 1.37
DAMIA (system – Victor Dartnall stable switchers in handicaps)
Victor Dartnall has a good record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in handicaps. This century, he is 14 from 52 (27% strike-rate) for a profit of £23.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Thirteen of those 14 winners came over jumps but DAMIA, the mount of Billy Loughnane, might be worth a speculative interest on his first start since leaving the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard.
BRIGHTON 4.40
STYLE OF LIFE (system – New Bay handicappers, top three finish last time out)
New Bay progeny tend to hold their form well and simply backing the handicappers who finished in the top three last time out would have found 81 winners from 284 bets (28.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £120.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. STYLE OF LIFE, a game 12-1 winner from the front at Wolverhampton last time (having finished second on his previous start) is taken to follow up.
PUNCHESTOWN 4.45
MALINA GIRL (system Malinas, jumps handicaps, 7yo or younger)
Younger progeny of the sire Malinas have a fine record in jumps handicaps, with those aged seven or younger landing 120 of their 653 starts (18.4%) for a profit of £75.62 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 97.57, A/E = 1.23). MALINA GIRL, winner of last season’s Ulster National at Downpatrick after a short break before pulling up in the Scottish National 20 days later, might be using this handicap hurdle as a stepping stone before a return to fences but it’s tempting to a have a small bet in the hope that she can take advantage of her 24lb lower hurdles mark.
LEICESTER 5.07
THE CRUISING LORD (system – Robyn Brisland, very recent run)
Robyn Brisland does well when bringing one of his runners back to the track quickly (seven days or sooner), scoring with 27 of the 125 qualifiers (21.6%) for a profit of £27.42 to the usual £1 stake. Overnight mover THE CRUISING LORD is 1-1 on this angle and looks interesting after running with credit (33-1 seventh) at Wolverhampton last week despite an equipment issue.
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