Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the all-weather meetings at Chelmsford and Newcastle for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, November 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHELMSFORD 3.50
ST LUKES CHELSEA (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time blinkers)
Front-runner ST LUKES CHELSEA, sent off as the 11-4 favourite for a at Kempton on his latest start, did too much too soon and helped set the race up for the closers (the winner and runner-up were described by the Racing Post as ‘in rear’ and ‘in rear, plenty to do when pushed along 3f out’). Chelmsford is likely to prove kinder to his running style and he could bounce back in first-time blinkers. Since the beginning of 2010, trainer Ralph Beckett is 12 from 53 in all-weather handicaps when using this form of headgear for a profit of £34.40 a £1 level stake at SP.
NEWCASTLE 4.05
DON’T LOOK BACK (system – Lucinda Russell, low-grade Flat handicaps)
Lucinda Russell has a good recent record in handicaps on the Flat, especially in Class 5 and 6 company. She’s scored with 16 of the 84 qualifiers since the start of last year for a profit of £67.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. DON’T LOOK BACK paid for trying to serve it up to Ebony Maw (winner again since) on heavy ground at Ayr last time and will hopefully revert to the patient tactics that saw him finish a respectable fourth at Catterick on his penultimate start. The five-year-old is 0-5 on the all-weather but was only beaten by two and a half lengths at 20-1 on his sole previous course and distance outing and is 4lb lower today.
NEWCASTLE 5.50
ROYAL PARADE (system – Mick Appleby/Jason Hart combination, 5f)
Mick Appleby has only employed the services of jockey Jason Hart in 5f sprints on 13 previous occasions, with those provided five winners from a profit of £20.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. ROYAL PARADE blew the start when trailing home last of 11 in a 6f handicap at Newmarket last time and he finished a close-up third of 14 at 28-1 on his only previous visit to Gosforth Park.
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