Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Cheltenham (Day 1 of the festival), Newcastle and Southwell for his four stats-based picks on Tuesday, March 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 4.10
ASHROE DIAMOND (system – mares only races)
Like many mares, ASHROE DIAMOND seems happiest in races confined to her own sex, recording form figures of 141111 (5-6). The sole defeat came by a little over half a length when 16-1 for a hot bumper at Leopardstown (she also met with interference) and she can upset shorter-priced stablemate Lossiemouth.
CHELTENHAM 4.50
OSE PARTIR (system – Fred Winter, finished fourth or worse last time out)
The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle often throws up a funny result and one successful angle has been to side with runners who finished fourth or worse last time out, the theory being that they had their ability disguised, often in Graded company, before switch to a handicap hurdle for the first time. Since 2012, this system has produced seven winners from 75 bets for a huge profit of £194.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.04, A/E = 3.43). OSE PARTIR caught the eye when down the field in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle and looks best of this year’s seven qualifiers.
NEWCASTLE 6.15
LAKOTA BRAVE (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Sioux Nation showed a strong preference for small fields (or racing with just a few rivals in a split field on a straight course) and his progeny seem to have inherited that trait. Backing the sire’s runners in fields of ten or less would have found 81 winners from 438 bets (8.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £74.81 and LAKOTA BRAVE, who showed obvious signs of inexperience when third over 7f here on his recent debut, can go two places better.
SOUTHWELL 7.00
OPTICIAN (system – Expert Eye, won last time out)
Progeny of Expert Eye tend to hold their form well and the last time out winners have a good record when bidding to follow up, landing 22 of their 72 starts for a profit of £4.51 (expected winners = 15.03, A/E = 1.46). Eight of the 12 qualifiers to race on Tapeta were successful (+£8.53) and OPTICIAN can keep the ball rolling.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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