Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the meetings at Newton Abbot and Newbury for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, June 25th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWTON ABBOT 3.30
FAME AND FUN (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a solid record with his runners in first-time cheekpieces and the value lies in backing those who ran fourth or worse last time out. Since 2010, this system has produced 37 winners from 151 bets (24.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £73.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. FAME AND FUN’s sire Fame And Glory also gets plenty of winners in this headgear and the seven-year-old is taken to bounce back from last month’s disappointing seventh place at Hereford.
NEWTON ABBOT 5.00
SCALLOWAY CASTLE (system – Jamie Snowden, young chasers, first or second run over fences)
Since the beginning of 2014, Jamie Snowden does well with his younger chasers (aged six or less) on their first or second start over fences, scoring with 28 of the 104 qualifiers for a profit of £36.36 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.23, A/E = 1.46). Six-year-old SCALLOWAY CASTLE has shown very little over hurdles but that was the case with his half-brother Do It For Thy Sen – his four hurdle runs produced a pulled up and defeats by 79, 51 and 11 lengths before six wins over the larger obstacles.
NEWBURY 5.30
FLAMING STONE (system – Andrew Balding, second-time out 2yos, beaten by 10L or less on debut)
Andrew Balding has a fine record with his second-time out juveniles who were beaten by ten lengths or less on their debuts, scoring with 107 of the 444 qualifiers (24.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £69.76 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 86.19, A/E = 1.24). The form of FLAMING STONE’s debut fourth to Mountain Breeze at Newmarket has taken a few knocks but that run would have been needed and he can get off the mark.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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