Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps action at Chepstow, Limerick and Newcastle for his four stats-based selections on Tuesday, January 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWCASTLE 1.50
EMOTIONAL ROLLER (system – Sue Smith, January)
In the past ten years, Sue Smith is 64 from 279 (23%) with her runners in January for a huge profit of £146.07 to a £1 level stake at SP. EMOTIONAL ROLLER is now star but his speed figures suggest he’ll be competitive in this weak handicap hurdle.
LIMERICK 2.00
CHATTERBOX (system – Fast Company, hurdles, good to soft or softer going)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company are profitable to back blindly over hurdles on good to soft or softer going (time based, not the official going), landing 35 of their 293 starts (12%) for a positive return of £44.89 to the usual £1 stake. CHATTERBOX was too green to do himself justice when down the field at Leopardstown on his hurdles debut but started at 125-1 that day and will find today’s company less taxing. The first-time hood may bring about improvement and he could go well at a big price.
NEWCASTLE 2.25
CONTRA ORDRE (system – Emma Smith-Chaston riding for Micky Hammond)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a 46 from 298 record (15.4% strike-rate) when riding for her boss Micky Hammond and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £39.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. She was on CONTRA ORDRE when the gelding scored over 2m1f on soft ground at Sedgefield in November and his subsequent defeat over the same course and distance can be attributed to the quicker going. Underfoot conditions should be more to his liking this afternoon.
CHEPSTOW 3.55
MAVIS PIKE (system – top four finish from the front on Newcastle’s round course last time out)
It remains difficult to win from the front over trips of 1m2f or further (i.e. on the round course) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and horses who run well under those conditions – defined as finishing in the top four – often makes good bets at the next time of asking. Backing all 295 qualifiers would have hit 60 winners (20.3%) and returned a profit of £89.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAVIS PIKE, runner-up (subsequently disqualified for a whip infringement) in a Newcastle bumper in February when we last saw her, looks interesting in this mares’ novices’ hurdle with Sam Twiston-Davies taking over from a conditional rider.
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