Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Lingfield (AW), Salisbury and Chelmsford (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, October 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 1.40
CIARA PEARL (system – Twilight Son, second-time out, beaten but ran within 7L of winner on debut)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son usually need their first run but often make good bets at the second time of asking, especially those who ran within seven lengths of the winner when beaten on their debuts. Backing all the qualifiers would have found 18 winners from 77 bets (23.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £20.10 to the usual £1 stake and CIARA PEARL, short-headed at 9-1 in a 1m fillies’ maiden at Bath in July, can go one better on her all-weather debut.
SALISBURY 3.27
TEN BOB TONY (system – Night Of Thunder, 2yos on turf)
Two-year-old progeny of sire Night Of Thunder are profitable to back blind on turf, landing 67 of their 382 starts in Britain and Ireland (17.5% strike-rate, +£14.38) and they do especially well when the mud is flying. Ed Walker’s TEN BOB TONY has shown promise on good ground in his two previous outings, keeping on into five-length fourth over 6f at Salisbury before a similar effort over 7f at Ascot, and today’s slower ground can help him to get off the mark.
CHELMSFORD 7.30
MOONLIGHT DREAMER (system – Jason Hart, Chelmsford handicaps)
Jason Hart has a good recent record when making the trip to Chelmsford City, scoring on 28 of his 141 rides (19.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £14.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. In handicaps only, the strike-rate improves to 23.3% thanks to 24 winners from 103 rides (+£31.02), improving again to 32.8% (21 from 64, +£59.52) over 5f-7f only. MOONLIGHT DREAMER shaped as though worth another try at tonight’s 5f trip when keeping on into a 20-1 sixth at Bath last time and the first-time cheekpieces could eke out the necessary improvement. His only other flirtation with first-time headgear saw him finish third at 40-1 and he looks well drawn in stall 2.
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