Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew returns from a short break with three stats-based picks at Thurles, Carlisle and Chelmsford on Thursday, October 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
THURLES 2.15
ARDERA RU (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of the sire Fame And Glory are showing clear signs of improving with age, with the eight-year-olds winning 40 of their 346 starts (11.6%) for a profit of £4.26 to a £1 level stake at SP and the nine-year-olds, the sire’s oldest crop, winning 11 from 67 (16.4%) for a profit of £73.63. ARDERA RU was a 15-race maiden under Rules before scoring at Tramore on New Years’s Day – her eighth Birthday – and added a Gowran Park win a couple of months later. She came from further back than ideal when runner-up in a handicap chase at Tramore in April when we last saw her and is worth chancing to break her chase duck off a mark of 100, 14lb below her hurdles rating.
CARLISLE 4.45
ONE MILL HARBOUR (system – Jimmy Moffatt stable switchers)
Since the beginning of 2015, Jimmy Moffatt is 14 from 57 (24.6%) at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards and backing all the qualifiers would have returned a lovely profit of £115.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. ONE MILL HARBOUR, a heavy -ground winner at Newcastle in March for Lucinda Russell – his only run not at Ayr in five career outings – changed hands for £22,000 at Goffs sale in May and might be capable of making a winning start for his new connections.
CHELMSFORD 6.00
MAID IN KENTUCKY (system – George Boughey handicappers, first-time cheekpieces)
This year, George Boughey is eight from 34 with his handicappers in first-time cheekpieces and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £28.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran at Chelmsford were three from five, with the three who started at single-figure prices all winning (6-1, 9-2 and 9-4). MAID IN KENTUCKY, who was trading at around 6-1 at the time of writing, looks well drawn in stall 1 and could appreciate the drop from 1m to 7f.
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