Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew struck with 9-1 Kempton winner TIMETOBENICE on Wednesday and has three stats-based picks on Thursday, November 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CLONMEL 3.25
KINGS HALO (system – Fame And Glory, jumps, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of the Fame And Glory tend to improve with age and we’d have made money by simply siding with the eight and nine-year-olds (the sire’s oldest crop). Backing the hurdlers and chasers, aged eight or older, would have found 54 winners from 424 bets (12.7%) for a profit of £83.88 to a £1 level stake at SP and KINGS HALO might be able to further boosts those figures in this 2m4.5f handicap chase. The eight-year-old looked in need of his reappearance outing when a weak-in-the-betting 10-1 fifth over 2m1f at Killarney last month and this extended 2m4f trip will prove more suitable.
LUDLOW 3.45
TIDE TIMES (system – Ludlow chases, ran is another Ludlow chase last time out)
TIDE TIMES isn’t the most straightforward, blowing his chance with a bad mistakes at the eighth fence when a modest fourth here in May on his latest outing, but he finished a close-up second on his first course and distance run last season before going one better next time (also over course and distance). His last three wins have come at Ludlow, and, in recent years, experience of these tricky fences has often proved. Since the spring of 2016, simply backing Ludlow chase runners who contested another Ludlow chase on their latest start would have found 42 winners from 189 bets (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £52.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 31.26, A/E = 1.34). The Ian Williams-trained nine-year-old has full course figures of 112134 (3-6) and is worth chancing at an each-way price on his reappearance.
CHELMSFORD 6.00
BADOSA (system – Mehmas, nurseries on Polytrack)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Mehmas have fine record in handicaps on Polytrack, landing 15 of their 60 starts for a profit of £92.46 to the usual £1 stake. The qualifiers at Chelmsford recorded form figures of 310121 (3-6), with the latest success at 33-1, and BADOASA might be able to add to those gains on her nursery debut, despite a wide draw.
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