Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Thursday (November 3rd) and Andrew has four stats-based picks at Newbury, Sedgefield and Chelmsford. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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CHELMSFORD 3.00
EMPIRE OF THE SUN (system – Rae Guest, second-time out, all-weather)
Rae Guest does well with his all-weather runners who are having their second career outing, scoring with 18 of the 83 qualifiers (21.7% strike-rate) since the beginning of 2011 for a profit of £35.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners was only 9.44. Those who were switching from turf were six from 26 for a profit of £43.00. EMPIRE OF THE SUN was too green to do himself justice when a 66-1 ninth of ten at Windsor last month and could sneak into the frame at juicy odds.
SEDGEFIELD 3.35
ARTHUR’S QUAY (system – Ben Haslam, second run for the yard)
Since the beginning of 2014, Ben Haslam is showing a profit of £40.84 at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers. He also has a cracking record with handicappers owned by JP McManus and ARTHUR’S QUAY might be able to carry the famous green and gold colours to victory, having finished a promising third over a shorter trip here on last month’s stable debut.
NEWBURY 3.42
STRIKING A POSE (system – 2m4f handicap chase trends, Newbury, early November)
This 2m4f Class 3 handicap chase has been going since 2016 and all six winners were aged seven or younger, with five of the six making their seasonal debut. The only blank year for young seasonal debutants was 2020 when sole qualifier Nestor Park ran second at 33-1. Backing all qualifiers over the years would have found five winners from 21 bets for a profit of £21.00.
There are only two qualifiers today – STRIKING A POSE and Java Point. The last-named has never won before New Year, recording form figures of 435202 (0-6) and will probably improve for the run. The ground is also quicker than he prefers, yet he’s priced up at just 7-2. Striking A Pose would also prefer it softer but was a winner on his reappearance last term and is worth chancing for his in-form yard.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
RICHARD R H B (system – Mick Appleby, first run for the yard)
With even-money favourite Barenboim not sure to appreciate the switch from Newcastle’s Tapeta surface where his patient running style is especially effective, it could be worth siding with RICHARD R H B on his debut for Mick Appleby, who is 88 from 501 (17.6%) at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards. Frederick Larson is three from nine when riding one of the qualifiers, including last Saturday’s 11-1 Wolverhampton winner Mafia Power.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 3 November 2022
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Related
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