Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Thursday (November 24th) and Andrew has four stats-based selections at Kelso, Lingfield and Taunton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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KELSO 12.48
NINETOFIVE (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
Since the beginning of 2013, trainer Sandy Thomson has an 83 from 427 record with his runners in the peak winter period of November to January (19.4% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a fantastic profit of £254.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. NINETOFIVE didn’t jump particularly well when a modest 9-1 third of 14 over course and distance on his hurdles debut last time but he’ll improve for that experience and the five-year-old can be backed to go two places better this afternoon.
TAUNTON 1.45
LET’S HAVE ANOTHER (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last-time out winners, top speed)
Proform’s speed figures are a fantastic guide to handicap hurdles over a distance of 3m or further and simply backing last-time-out winners who clocked a rating of 67 or above would have found 117 winners from 425 bets in the past ten years (27.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £111.73 (expected winners = 90.35). LET’S HAVE ANOTHER recorded a good Proform speed figure when successful over an extended 2m4f at Market Rasen last time, improving for the first-time cheekpieces as progeny of Fame And Glory often do. Today’s step up to 3m should suit.
LINGFIELD 2.35
THOR DE CERISY (system – Michael Scudamore, first run in a handicap chase)
In-form Michael Scudamore has a solid record with his handicap chase debutants, scoring with 11 of the 49 runners (22.5%) since 2011 for a profit of £34.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. THOR DE CERISY hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since April but the eight-year-old runs well when fresh and can be supported each-way.
TAUNTON 3.50
AFTER THE FOX (system – Jane Williams, recent run)
Jane Williams’ inmates have mostly been needing their first run this season and those who rock up at the races after recent outing (within six weeks) have been doing exceptionally well of late, with the last five qualifiers recording form figures of 11131 (4-5), with the wins at 10-1, 7-1, 7-2 and 5-2 (the beaten horse was 9-1). She was three qualifiers at Taunton today but with Helios Allen (2.20) and Folly Gate (3.20) both possibly best on left-handed tracks the best bet might be AFTER THE FOX, as big as 20-1 at the time of writing.
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