Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newcastle, Market Rasen and Wincanton for his four stats-based picks on Thursday, November 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 12.05
BLUE BALOO (System – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Sandy Thompson has been slow to get going this season, but he can usually be relied upon to have a glut of winners in the winter and the yard could be about to turn the corner. Since 2012, his combined record in November, December and January stands at 99 winners from 496 runners (20% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £259.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. BLUE BALOO showed up well on his racecourse debut last October before scoring here at Newcastle on Boxing Day and should be suited by the step up to this extended 2m4f trip.
MARKET RASEN 1.40
GIOVANNI CHANGE (system – course direction)
GIOVANNI CHANGE has won left-handed on the Flat and in an Irish bumper, but he has shown a strong preference for right-handed tracks since switched to obstacles. His record left-handed over hurdles/fences reads 33P835PP2PP (0-11), compared to 31134P43171 (4-11) when racing in the other direction. Those four wins all came at Market Rasen and he’s worth a small interest now returning to hurdles in this Pertemps Qualifier.
MARKET RASEN 2.50
HAUT FOLIN (system – Venetia Williams handicap chasers in November)
This century, in-form Venetia Williams has won with 123 of her 617 handicap chasers in the month of November for a profit of £205.46 to a £1 level stake at SP (prior to yesterday’s racing) and HAUT FOLIN, who contributed with a comfortable 2-1 win at Ffos Las earlier this month, can make it two from two for the current campaign.
WINCANTON 3.50
MISTER UPTON (system – Chris Gordon, Wincanton)
Chris Gordon has a fine record with his West Country runners, including 19 winners from 109 representatives at Wincanton for a profit of £42.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has two qualifiers in this 2m4f handicap hurdle – Sami Bear and MISTER UPTON – with the last-named preferred. Sami Bear is likely to be much shorter in the betting but he was beaten in this race last year and his jumping remains far from fluent (he often jumps out to his left too, hardly ideal for this right-handed track). Mister Upton on the other hand is open to improvement after just five runs and finished a creditable 66-1 eighth of 18 in a novice hurdle here in February.
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