Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found gambled-on 7-2 Bangor winner NAYATI on Wednesday and has three selections on Thursday, November 10th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWCASTLE 2.15
PATAGONIA (system – Oliver Greenall, Class 5 handicap chases, fresh)
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a fine recent record with Class 5 handicap chasers who were returning from a break of at least six weeks, scoring with 11 of the 33 qualifiers since the beginning of 2020 for a profit of £65.70 (expected winners only 4.14). PATAGONIA made the frame in three novice/maiden hurdles before probably finding conditions too quick when fifth at Warwick on his latest outing and looks worth chancing on his chase debut.
CHELMSFORD 6.00
PERDIKA (system – sire Unfortunately, all-weather)
It’s very early days for Unfortunately as a sire but the signs are encouraging and his progeny have performed well on the all-weather, albeit from a small sample. His ten runners have recorded form figures of 2116628117 (4-10) for a profit of £13.50, with the runner-up efforts at 11-1 and 6-1. Two of the four unplaced horses started at 33-1 and PERDIKA, who also qualifies as a bet for me on a last-time-out winners system for trainer George Boughey, is taken to complete her hat-trick despite conceding at least a stone all round.
CHELMSFORD 7.30
ERNIE’S VALENTINE (system – Cole yard, wore first-time cheekpieces on latest start)
We would have made a very small profit by backing Paul & Oliver Cole-trained runners in first-time cheekpieces in recent years but the most lucrative angle is to back those same horses on their next outing, regardless of whether the cheekpieces were retained, left off or swapped for a different form of headgear. Since the beginning of 2016, ten of the 45 qualifiers were successful and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £64.00 to the usual £1 stake.
ERNIE’S VALENTINE, only eighth in the first-time cheekpieces when we last saw him at Sandown in June, has been gelded since and might prove capable of better. He’s well berthed un stall 2 whereas two of his main market rivals are drawn wider than ideal in stalls 7 and 10.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day for 10 November 2022
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Related
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