Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found well backed Ascot winner TWO TEMPTING on Wednesday and has three stats-based selections on Thursday, May 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
AYR 3.27
MIDNIGHT LION (system – made the running on Newcastle’s round course last time out)
It remains very difficult to win from front on the round course (distances of 1m2f or further) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and horses who make the running often make good bets next time out, regardless of where they finished on their latest start. Since the Tapeta was introduced, simply backing horses who made the early running over 1m2f at Newcastle (AW) on their most recent outing, who were running in another Flat race (turf or AW), would have found 38 winners from 261 runners (14.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £13.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. MIDNIGHT LION did far too much too soon when seventh of nine over the extended 1m4f trip at Newcastle last time where the winner, runner-up, third, fifth and sixth all came from midfield or further back. It’s safe to draw a line through that run and he scored over today’s 1m2f trip on his penultimate start.
PUNCHESTOWN 4.50
FAMEAFTERTHEGLORY (system – Fame And Glory, jumps, 8yo+)
Progeny of Fame And Glory take time to reach their peak and backing the sire’s progeny in the National Hunt sphere, aged eight or older, would have found 84 winners from 672 bets (12.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £84.84 to a £1 level stake at SP. Gavin Cromwell’s dual point-to-point winner FAMEAFTERTHEGLORY has scored just once from 25 career starts under rules but he’s made the frame in all three previous visits to Punchestown and looks capable of rewarding each-way interest at around the 8-1 mark.
CHELMSFORD 5.50
LAUTREC (system – Newcastle AW debut winners)
All-weather form continues to be underrated by the betting market and horses who make winning racecourse debuts on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface often follow up. Since the Tapeta surface was introduced in 2016, Newcastle (AW) debut winners won 54 of their 161 second-time starts (33.5%) for a profit of £26.60 and LAUTREC can further boost those figures. For information, DILIGENT RESDEV also qualifies on this angle in the 2.12 at Redcar.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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