Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the meetings at Newmarket, Newcastle (AW) and Leicester for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, June 27th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWCASTLE 4.10
ELNAJMM (system – William Haggas, first run since gelding, all-weather)
William Haggas has a solid record with his newly gelded all-weather runners, scoring with 13 of the 34 qualifiers since 2010 (38.2%) for a profit of £8.01 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.29, A/E = 1.57). He’s three from five at Newcastle on this angle and two from two with last-time out winners, which brings in ELNAJMM, successful on the turf at Lingfield last August on his most recent outing.
NEWMARKET 4.30
BENACRE (system – Charlie Johnston, Newmarket handicaps, high summer)
With Arabian Storm (stall 1) a non-runner it looks as though the Charlie Johnston-trained BENACRE (stall 2) will get a soft time of things on the front end against the near side rail. The four-year-old’s wins have all come over this 7f trip at Epsom/Goodwood but he has form on straight courses and will appreciate the cut-back in trip after his close-up Nottingham third to the progressive Great Blasket over the extended mile. The Johnston yard does well in Newmarket handicaps in the high summer period (June to August), landing 79 of their 406 starts (19.5%) for a profit of £80.43.
LEICESTER 7.30
SAMOON STAR (system – Hughie Morrison, Leicester handicaps, Flat)
Since the beginning of 2017, Hughie Morrison has a nine from 42 record in handicaps on the Flat at Leicester and backing the qualifiers blindly would have seen us secure a profit of £29.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. This year’s sole previous qualifier – Azahara Palace on May 27th – was a 9-1 winner and perhaps SAMOON STAR can keep the ball rolling. Her form figures of 007 (0-3) hardly inspire confidence but there was promise in her last-time-out 150-1 seventh of 12 at Chelmsford and she looks a likely improver now handicapping for the first time. It’s also interesting to note that she was sent off at just 6-1 for her juvenile debut last summer, suggesting that she’d been showing up well at home.
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