Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the main afternoon turf meeting at Newbury for his three stats-based picks on Thursday, June 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWBURY 2.20
CLEVER JACK (system – Starspangledbanner, 2yo debut, turf)
Juvenile progeny of Starspangledbanner have a useful record when making their racecourse debut on turf, landing 33 of their 216 starts (15.3%) for a profit of £38.36 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.63, A/E = 1.46). Ed Dunlop’s newcomers usually improve for the run, but plenty make the frame at big prices and CLEVER JACK could fall into that category.
NEWBURY 4.00
SAMBUCUS (system – Ed Walker, second-time out 3yos, won or beaten by 5L or less on debut)
One of my favourite betting systems is to back Ed Walker-trained two-year-olds on their second career start, provided they won or were beaten by five lengths or less on their debuts. This angle also works with the trainer’s three-year-olds, thanks to 16 winners from 49 bets and a profit of £13.89. SAMBUCUS, who met trouble in running when a one-length 22-1 third of 11 at Bath on her debut last month (albeit from a good draw), can get off the mark.
NEWBURY 5.40
NORTH WINTERFELL (system – made the running over 1m2f+ at Newcastle (AW) last time out)
It’s never been easy to win from the front on the round course (1m2f+) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and front-runners from that venue, regardless of where the finished, can be supported next time if racing on the Flat (turf or all-weather). Since the Tapeta was introduced, the score is 94 from 669 )14.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £97.01 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 71.71, A/E = 1.31). NORTH WINTERFELL was only fourth of five when the 5-4 second favourite for a 1m4f Newcastle maiden last time but was pestered on the front end by 11-10 favourite Love Safari (second) and might do better now switched to turf and handicapping for the first time.
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