Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Perth and Newbury’s evening Flat card for his three stats-selections on General Election Day (Thursday, July 4th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PERTH 3.18
PLANNED PARADISE (system – Christian Williams, long travellers)
Since the beginning of 2019, Christian Williams has a 38 from 149 record (25.5% strike-rate) with his long travellers – defined as runners shipped more than 250 miles from his Welsh base. Backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £15.68 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 29.21, A/E = 1.30). PLANNED PARADISE, the first of his four runners today, was only sixth of nine here last month but that was in Class 3 company, and he drops to Class 5 level for the first time in his career. The likely strong pace will suit this hold-up performer and any rain will aid his cause.
NEWBURY 7.20
WAR HOWL (system – Brian Meehan, 2yo debut, colts and geldings only)
Brian Meehan has a good recent record with his juvenile debutants, with the colts and geldings landing 12 of their 95 starts since 2018 for a profit of £79.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. WAR HOWL, a gelded son of Bated Breath, is likely to be a double-figure price and is worth a small interest in the hope that he can cause an upset.
NEWBURY 9.00
NEW KINGS ROAD (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Progeny of Sioux Nation seem happiest in small fields, landing 96 of their 532 starts (18.1%) in fields of ten or fewer runners for a profit of £83.26 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 79.58, A/E = 1.21). Those who finished second, third or fourth on their latest start were 51 from 171 (29.8%) for a profit of £94.10 (expected winners = 35.25, A/E = 1.45). NEW KINGS ROAD, successful in a field of seven runners at Salisbury on her penultimate start, was only beaten by half a length when bidding to follow up at Pontefract. That defeat can be upgraded as he helped to contribute to a very strong gallop, setting it up for the closers, and the prominently-ridden 25-1 fifth, Visibility, boosted the form when scoring at Pontefract earlier this week.
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