Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has four stats-based picks at Huntingdon, Wetherby and Southwell on Thursday, January 25th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
HUNTINGON 12.50
KANSAS CITY STAR (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham has a fantastic record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 15 of the 36 qualifiers for a profit of £59.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. KANSAS CITY STAR failed to score from nine starts in Ireland but made the frame in six of them and also won his sole point-to-point start, suggesting that the switch to regulation fences for the first time could bring about improvement.
WETHERBY 1.15
LILLISTAR (system – Micky HammonD/Emma Smith-Chaston combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston rode a winner for Micky Hammond at Catterick yesterday, taking her record for the yard to 46 winners from 292 rides (15.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. She has three rides for her boss at Wetherby today including the ex-Harry & Roger Charlton-trained LILLISTAR, who was as big as 40-1 at the time of writing. The four-year-old’s sire, Zoustar, does well with his runners on turf and he might prove capable of a top-three finisher in this juvenile hurdle.
HUNTINGDON 2.35
SISTER MICHAEL (system – Fame And Glory, older jumps progeny)
Jumps progeny of the sire Fame And Glory tend to peak later in life and backing those aged eight and older would have found 67 winners from 505 bets (13.3%) for a profit of £116.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. Today’s four qualifiers include SISTER MICHAEL in this 2m4.5f handicap hurdle and the eight-year-old is taken to build on last month’s runner-up effort at Southwell.
SOUTHWELL 3.20
ALMODOVAR DEL RIO (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has a solid record when switching one of his runners from turf to Tapeta, scoring with 11 of the 43 qualifiers at Newcastle (+£43.91 to a £1 level stake at SP) and 55 of the 254 runners at Wolverhampton (+£68.60). He’s 0-9 so far at Southwell but perhaps ALMODOAVR DEL RIO, who will appreciate the return to this 7f trip for the first time since last April’s Wolverhampton third on his return from a layoff. Can get him off the mark.
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