Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the evening all-weather action at Southwell for his three stats-based picks on Thursday, January 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:ks on Thursday, January 18th.
SOUTHWELL 7.30
AMBER DEW (system – Kevin Philippart De Foy, first-time headgear, all-weather handicaps)
Kevin Philippart De Foy has an eight from 34 record when using first-time headgear in all-weather handicaps for a profit of £16.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.36, A/E 1.84). AMBER DEW blew the start in first-time cheekpieces when only seventh at Lingfield last time but is worth one more chance now that the first-time tongue-tie is added.
SOUTHWELL 8.00
ROGUE DE VEGA (system – Antony Brittain, January/February, recent run)
Antony Brittain ended a long losing run with a 15-2 winner at Wolverhampton on Tuesday and the North Yorkshire trainer has had several other runners perform well in defeat in the past week or so. Backing the stable’s runners in January/February, who had the benefit of a recent outing (within 21 days), would have found 47 winners from 268 bets (17.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £76.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 32.68, A/E = 1.44). Siding only with the colts and geldings improves the strike-rate to 17.9% (43 from 240) and the profit to £83.38. ROGUE DE VEGA, sent off at 100-1 for last week’s stable debut, ran with credit when a 100-1 seventh of 11 in a 5f handicap at Newcastle and can go well in this 6f contest.
SOUTHWELL 8.30
WRESTLING REVENUE (system – Tony Carroll, second-time ‘switchers’, low-grade all-weather races)
Tony Carroll does well at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from others yards, especially in Class 6 company on the all-weather. In the past ten years, he’s scored with 14 of the 70 qualifiers for a profit of £41.02 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.60, A/E = 1.63. A further 24 runners made the frame (second, third or fourth), often at big prices. WRESTLING REVENUE, previously trained by Sean Davis in Ireland, finished a creditable 50-1 seventh of ten (beaten by just over four lengths) in a 5f Wolverhampton nursery when making his stable debut on Boxing Day and the step back up to 6f will suit. INTERESTNPENALTIES also qualifies on the same angle.
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