Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Wincanton, Fakenham and Chelmsford for four stats-based picks on Thursday, February 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WINCANTON 1.30
HELIOS ALLEN (system – Jane Williams, recent run)
Jane Williams was out of form at the start of the peak jumps season – her runners were short of fitness (she told me they were “about six weeks behind where I want them” when I spoke to her at Warwick in early November) and some were suffering from a viral infection. Her yard has done well since, and had we backed all her runners since October 1st who had raced within the past eight weeks, we’d have won 13 of our 67 bets and made a profit of £19.68 to a £1 level stake at SP. HELIOS ALLEN pulled up at Uttoxeter on New Year’s Eve but is worth a small interest to bounce back in the first-time blinkers.
FAKENHAM 1.40
SAN PEDRO (system – hurdles, very recent run, February, top-4 finish last time)
Race fitness is obviously an important factor, especially at this time of year when it can be hard to get work into horses because of the poor weather. Since 2012, had be bet every hurdler in Britain during February, who finished in the top four last time out, after a very recent run (between one and six days ago), we’d have won 39 of our 96 bets (40.6%) and made a profit of £43.81. SAN PEDRO, a 12-1 third at Fontwell last Sunday, might be able to break his hurdles duck or at least reward each-way support.
CHELMSFORD 7.00
POP DANCER (system – Tony Carroll, Chelmsford, stall 1)
Tony Carroll is nine from 36 with his stall 1 runners at Chelmsford and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £38.30 to a £1 level stake at SP. POP DANCER has the plum draw in this 5f handicap and it’s interesting to note that his sole previous course run from this draw resulted in a win at 11-2.
CHELMSFORD 7.30
SAVANNAH SMILES (system – Unfortunately, all-weather, recent run)
Progeny of the sire Unfortunately have a good record on the all-weather, landing six of their 27 starts for a profit of £3.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who raced between one and 28 days ago were five from 12 for a profit of £16.00. SAVANNAH SMILES, a 14-1 runner-up at Southwell last time, can go one better despite his tricky draw in stall 8.
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