Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in good form already this week and has four stats-based picks at Ludlow, Taunton and Wetherby on Thursday, February 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
TAUNTON 2.40
AMALFI BAY (system – Anthony Honeyball, handicap hurdle debut)
Backing all handicap hurdle debutants trained by Anthony Honeyball would have found 29 winners from 115 bets (25.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £82.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. AMALFI BAY, runner-up in a novice hurdle at Exeter, doesn’t need to improve on the clock (according to Proform’s speed figures) to take this 0-95 contest on his handicap debut and could prove hard to beat.
WETHERBY 3.25
WRECKLESS ERIC (system – owned by The Megsons)
Horses that run in the pink colours of the Megson family have been a friend to punters over the years, landing 57 of their 358 starts (15.9%) for a profit of £60.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 49.54, A/E = 1.15). WRECKLESS ERIC, runner-up by three-quarters of a lengths at Newbury on last month’s debut, clocked a good time for that effort and can go one better.
LUDLOW 3.40
DELLA CASA LUNGA (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last-time out winners/speed angle)
Last-time out winners who recorded a Proform speed figure of at least 67 have a cracking record in handicap hurdles over 3m or further, landing 129 of their 472 starts (27.3%) since 2012 for a profit of £134.07 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 99.42, A/E = 1.30). DELLA CASA LUNGA towers over her rivals on the numbers after bolting up over 2m5f on soft ground here last time and it’s worth taking a chance on her stamina in this longer race.
WETHERBY 4.35
WAR SOLDIER (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
In-form Sandy Thomson has a fantastic record with his winter runners (beginning of November until the end of February), scoring with 131 of the 717 qualifiers since 2012 (18.3%) for a profit of £224.85 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. WAR SOLDIER, his only runner today, can keep the ball rolling.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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