Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew was among the winners again with MAKIN’YOURMINDUP on Saturday and has three stats-based picks on Sunday, February 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
LINGFIELD 2.27
SENNOCKIAN (system – Charlie Johnston, all-weather handicaps, second run since gelded)
The Johnston yard does well in all-weather handicaps with runners having their second start since a gelding operation, scoring with 21 of the 85 qualifiers (24.7% strike-rate) since the spring of 2016 for a profit of £25.62 to a £1 level stake at SP. Six of the 13 to run at Lingfield were successful, including the last three (7-1, 7-2 and 3-1) and perhaps SENNOCKIAN, a winner at Newcastle last time out, can continue the sequence.
EXETER 3.35
GOSHHOWPOSH (system – Malinas, young handicappers, jumps)
Youthful progeny (aged seven or younger) of the sire Malinas have a fine record in handicap chases/hurdles, landing 131 of their 7272 starts (18%) for a profit of £71.93 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 108.41, A/E = 1.21). Seven-year-old GOSHHOWPOSH has contributed with wins over course and distance and at Wincanton this season and the heavy ground is unlikely to be an issue.
EXETER 4.35
ASK ME EARLY (systems – ten-year-olds in veterans’ handicap chases, finished sixth or worse last time out & Harry Fry at Exeter)
Ten-year-olds – the youngest age group eligible to take part – have won five of the six previous runnings of this 3m veterans’ handicap chase and only five of the 15 runners qualify this year. Ten-year-olds who finished sixth or worse last time out often make good bets in these races, landing 78 of their 509 starts (15.3%) for a profit of £114.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. Harry Fry’s ASK ME EARLY was only ninth here on his comeback in early November but the subsequent absence suggests that he had excuses and he’s worth chancing. His trainer has a great record at Exeter, scoring with 50 of his 177 runners (28.3%) for a profit of £48.59 to a £1 level stake at SP. I’ve saved on RUN TO MILAN.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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