Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Carlisle, Leicester and Fairyhouse for his three stats-based selections on Sunday, December 3rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CARLISLE 12.35
RUSSIAN VIRTUE (system – Rebecca Menzies, jumps handicaps, December and January)
RUSSIAN VIRTUE drew a blank in ten starts on the Flat for David Menusier, was 0-8 for Claire Hobson and failed to score in his first seven runs for current handler Rebecca Menzies. However, he took off at about this time last year and has now recorded form figures in the past 12 months of 111141433131 (7-12) with the latest success at 28-1 in a Class 3 handicap hurdle of today’s track and trip. His yard’s jumps handicappers typically perform well at this time of year, landing 48 of their 261 starts (18.4% strike-rate) in December/January for a profit of £136.91 to a £1 level stake at SP. The six-year-old son of Toronado, down in grade today, likes to come late off a strong pace and this conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle should be run to suit.
FAIRYHOUSE 2.00
SHARJAH (system – seasonal preference)
Willie Mullins’ ten-year-old SHARJAH can usually be relied upon to run his race at this time of year, recording form figures in November/December of 1F3114111123 (7-12) for a profit of £18.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s taken well to fences despite switching to this discipline in the latter stages of his career (I suspect connections felt he couldn’t mix it with Constitution Hill and stablemate State Man over hurdles this term) and can make it three from three over the larger obstacles.
LEICESTER 2.25
THUNDERCLAP (system – Hughie Morrison, very recent run)
In all likelihood Hughie Morrison’s THUNDERCLAP, a modest fifth at Bangor yesterday, won’t run again but if he does, I’ll be having a small interest. This century, his trainer is 12 from 33 with runners coming back to the track within four days of their latest outing for a profit of £22.28 to a £1 level stake at SP, including a win from the sole hurdle runner to attempt this trick.
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