Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Curragh, Stratford and Musselburgh for his three stats-based picks on Sunday, April 21st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CURRAGH 1.50
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (system – Starspangledbanner 2yo debutants, turf, March to May)
Starspangledbanner juvenile newcomers do well in early-season turf contests, landing 15 of their 57 starts for a profit of £80.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. MIDNIGHT STRIKE is drawn on the outside of the field in stall 1 but could still be capable of running a big race on his debut.
STRATFORD 3.23
AVADA KEDVARA (system – J P McManus-owned Class 5 jumps handicappers)
This century, leading owner J P McManus has a 124 from 590 record (21% strike-rate) with his runners in Class 5 handicaps in Britain and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £127.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. Three of the last four qualifiers have won and perhaps AVADA KEDVARA, who has had a wind operation ahead of his handicap debut, can get off the mark.
MUSSELBURGH 5.45
INDIVIDUALISM (system – Charlie Johnston, Musselburgh, March-April)
The Johnston yard has often targeted early-season Musselburgh fixtures and, since 2016, backing their runners blind in March and April would have found 13 winners from 59 runners for a profit of £24.63. INDIVIDUALISM ran fifth in a hot 7f novice contest at Newmarket on his final start last term (the winner, runner-up and third all scored at the next time of asking) and son of Too Darn Hot can break his duck at the fifth attempt despite his wide draw.
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