Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsLens readers with his latest thoughts below.
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It’s day two of Glorious Goodwood where Andrew heads for his three recommended bets/trades on Wednesday, July 31st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 2.25
The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes – a 7f contest for fillies and mares – has thrown up its share of surprise winners in recent years, including at 33-1, 18-1, 16-1 and 12-1. Two years ago, the bookies very nearly enjoyed an almighty boil over when 66-1 shot Internationalangel went down by just a head in second place and those at the front of the market could again prove vulnerable. Current favourite JABAARA has a tough draw in stall 10, second favourite KATHMANDU is still searching for her first turf success and wears a tongue-tie for the first time, third favourite FAIR ANGELLICA landed a Deauville Listed race last time but prefers it softer and last-time out winners are 0-24 in the past ten years. Last year’s runner-up BREEGE, the fourth favourite, should again be thereabouts but she finds it hard to get her head in front and the only horse at a single-figure price that I like from a win perspective is 7-1 chance RAQIYA, three from three on good or faster going since her racecourse debut, though yet to run beyond 6f. There’s a better than fair chance that the winner will return at odds of 10-1 or bigger and I’m happy to buy SP OF WINNER with Spreadex. Fixed odds punters might want to play each-way on SEA OF THIEVES at a big price. She’s well drawn in stall 1 and is unbeaten in two starts over a turning 7f.
Recommendation: Buy SP OF WINNER in Goodwood 2.25
GOODWOOD 3.00
FACTEUR CHEVAL rarely runs a bad race, and the market looks to have over-reacted to his Queen Anne sixth to Charyn when he had excuses. The five-year-old was one of only two to race on the far side of the track that day when the action developed centre/near side and he had little chance after getting into an early pace war with Big Rock, who finished over 14 lengths behind him in tenth. Facteur Cheval has finished in the first three in 13 of his other 14 starts and found only 4-9 favourite Paddington too good when an 11-1 second in this race last year (Charyn three lengths back in third). Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back FACTEUR CHEVAL in Goodwood 3.00
GOODWOOD 5.20
Seven of the last nine winners of this 7f handicap came from midfield or further back and with plenty of pace angles and three horses in first-time headgear it should again be set up for a closer, probably one drawn low. Step forward STAR OF ORION (stall 4 of 18) who makes his debut for Eve Johnson Houghton after leaving Ralph Beckett’s yard. The six-year-old finished second off a 2lb higher mark in a course and distance handicap last summer – his only previous run at this venue – and the three horses who previously made the Beckett to Johnson Houghton switch all ran well on their yard debuts – Camomile Lawn and Fearless Warrior ran third at 16-1 and 4-1 respectively, while Biggles did well to finish a 12-1 seventh of 15 at Newmarket’s Craven meeting this year as his patient style was at a huge disadvantage (he fared third best of the hold-up horses). Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price, each-way.
Recommendation: Back STAR OF ORION in Goodwood 5.20
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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