Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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It’s day one of Royal Ascot where Andrew has three recommended bets/trades on Tuesday, June 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 2.30
The Queen Anne Stakes – Royal Ascot’s opening race on Tuesday – looks ripe for an upset and the two horses to buy on the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market are DOCKLANDS (7-9) and WITCH HUNTER (3-5). The first-named landed the Britannia Stakes at this meeting last season, a huge effort as he was drawn high and raced on the stands’ side when the quicker ground was on the far side. The next five finishers all raced on the other side of the track, and he won the race on his flank by six lengths. The Harry Eustace-trained four-year-old has finished in the first three in eight of his nine career outings, represents an in-form yard, has course and distance form figures of 1132 (2-4) and looks highly likely to encounter the required strong pace.
The case for WITCH HUNTER is less clear cut but he’s going to be three or four times the price of Docklands and looks a value play. Richard Hannon’s five-year-old bombed out at Haydock last time but placed in the Lockinge on his penultimate start and the return to a straight track could be the key. Since gelded, his record on straight courses reads 0251313 (2-7), with the ‘duck egg’ excusable as he failed to handle heavy going in last year’s Lincoln and the fifth place by just under three lengths (18-1) when they didn’t go fast enough for him in a seven-runner handicap at Newmarket. He won the 29-runner 7f Buckingham Palace Stakes on fast ground as this meeting last year and he’s likely to be staying on to good effect. Buy both DOCKLANDS and WITCH HUNTER in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market at 9 and 5 respectively or back the pair each-way (12-1 and 33-1) in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back DOCKLANDS and WITCH HUNTER in Royal Ascot 2.30
Ascot 3.05
Michael Bell’s juveniles usually improve considerably for their initial outing and, this century, he’s sent out just 11 second-time out two-year-olds to start at odds of 50-1 or shorter at this meeting and they recorded form figures of 64320581324 (1-11). NASCIMENTO was very green when beaten by a length and a half into third at Yarmouth last month but clocked a fast time and will come on a bundle for the run. The son of Cotai Glory is likely to be finishing to good effect under Jamie Spencer and can be bought at 4 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market. Fixed odds punters can play each-way at 40-1.
Recommendation: Back NASCIMENTO in Ascot 3.05
ASCOT 5.40
John & Thady Gosden’s TORITO, the 100-30 second favourite with Spreadex at the time of writing, is going to be popular in the Listed 1m2f Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot today but stall 2 of 16 is a terrible draw (horses drawn 1, 2 or 3 are 0-36 in this race in the past 12 years) and he looks under-priced. Stablemate ISRAR (3-1) is better berthed in stall 8 but he’s proving very difficult to win with, while 9-2 poke BOTANNICAL would prefer softer ground. With the front three in the betting looking vulnerable the punting angle is to buy SP OF WINNER with Spreadex. Fixed odds punters might wish to side with ASTRO KING (12-1).
Recommendation: Buy SP OF WINNER in Ascot 5.40
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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