Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads the Northumberland Plate meeting at Newcastle and Chester for his three recommended bets/trades on Saturday, June 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 1.35
This 6f Class 2 handicap often goes to a runner drawn middle-to-high, with six of the eight winners (since the Tapeta surface was introduced in 2016) coming from stall 8 or higher. Backing all 43 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £12.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.71, A/E = 1.62) whereas those in stall 7 or lower were two from 56 for a loss of £44.00 (expected winners = 4.29, A/E = 0.47). My shortlist is headed by CITY HOUSE (stall 13 of 14), though I also respected the chances of MAGICAL SPIRIT (stall 12) and KING’S LYNN (stall 11). The best way to side with them as a group is to buy DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER with Spreadex.
Recommendation: Buy DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER in Newcastle 1.35
NEWCASTLE 3.40
All-weather form has been the key to winning this 7f Class 2 handicap. The 2016 winner lacked course form, though that is hardly surprising as the Tapeta surface had only just been introduced at Newcastle, but five of the other six winners (there was no renewal in 2020) had scored at least once at the track previously. There are only three course winners in today’s 12-runner line-up and the most interesting one is ELDRICKJONES whose last five visits to Gosforth Park have produced form figures of 22111 (3-5). Well drawn in stall 8, he can be bought in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or backed each-way in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back ELDRICKJONES in Newcastle 3.40
CHESTER 5.20
GOLDEN MELODY is well drawn in stall 2 and is likely to be popular in the betting (forecast at 13-2 in the Racing Post) on the strength of her last-time-out Carlisle win. However, that victory came on soft ground and, more importantly, she challenged late down the middle of the track, like all bar one of the winners at that meeting on June 17th. Her patient style is no help here, nor is the quick ground and she looked flattered by racing on the fastest strip of ground at Carlisle. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose GOLDEN MELODY in Chester 5.20
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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