Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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It’s Derby Day at Epsom on Saturday (June 1st) where Andrew has three recommended bets/trades, including one in the big race. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
EPSOM 2.35
SILVER SWORD would prefer faster ground but still looks over-priced in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes. Dylan Cunha’s four-year-old scored on three occasions over a mile last term (twice on officially good to firm going and once on Tapeta) and ran second in the 1m2f three-year-old handicap at this meeting. He signed off with a soft-ground second to Highland Avenue in a 1m1f Group 3 contest at Newmarket and was most eyecatching on his recent reappearance at Haydock where he kept on well to finish fourth over an inadequate 7f trip, doing second best of the hold-up horses. The patiently-ridden third from that Listed contest – Witch Hunter – boosted the form when third in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury next time and the step back up in trip will suit. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back SILVER SWORD in Epsom 2.35
EPSOM 4.30
CITY OF TROY was a massive disappointment in the 2000 Guineas, trailing home in ninth place, 17 lengths behind the winner, despite starting as the 4-6 favourite. Admittedly, his yard is in better form now, but three-year-old progeny of his sire Justify have a very low strike-rate and there has to be a good chance that he hasn’t trained on. His price at the head of the Derby market is based on the exploits of last year’s winner Auguste Rodin, who also bombed out in the 2000 Guineas, and he rates a sell in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market. Stall 1 is another kick in the teeth for his supporters and he looks too short at current odds.
Recommendation: Oppose CITY OF TROY in Epsom 4.30
EPSOM 5.50
There isn’t a great deal of early pace in the 6f JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap – Epsom’s finale on Saturday – and a buy of pace angle MR WAGYU looks warranted. John & Sean Quinn’s admirable veteran usually thrives at this time of year, landing 15 of his 34 starts in June/July (+£65.35 to a £1 level stake at SP) and finishing second, third or fourth on a further 11 occasions. He’s failed to register a single win from 51 goes outside of this two-month period and can be bought in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or supported each-way at a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back MR WAGYU in Epsom 5.50
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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