Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Ayr, Ripon and Wolverhampton for his three recommended bets/trades on Sunday, July 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
AYR 5.15
At the time of writing ATOMISE was trading as the 7-2 second favourite for this 6f handicap on the strength of last month’s Carlisle second but he looked flattered that day, as he came late/wide down the middle of the track on the fastest strip of ground. He’s won just once from 20 starts and, with a lack of early pace in this 6f handicap, the race is far from certain to suit his patient style. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market. Fixed odds players might want to side with THAKI, who clocked a fast time when making all at Hamilton last time.
Recommendation: Oppose ATOMISE in Ayr 5.15
RIPON 6.20
Karl Burke has a fantastic record in restricted novice races on turf with horses who have had the benefit of at least one previous outing. His record under such conditions stands at 25 winners from 74 runners (33.8%) for a lovely profit of £93.43 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s only had four qualifiers on this system so far in 2024 and three have won (4-1, 4-1 and 4-11), with the other finishing second at 6-4. PARTY BEAR trailed home last of seven at Carlisle on her debut in late May, despite starting at odds of just 5-2, but showed more in a 5f soft-ground fillies’ maiden at Ripon the following month, coming home third of seven at odds of 13-2 (from 9-1). The daughter of Kodi Bear could be well drawn in stall 14 and has clearly shown up well at home. The step up to 6f should suit and she rates a buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Back PARTY BEAR in Ripon 6.20
WOLVERHAMPTON JOCKEYS
The Tapeta at Wolverhampton rides very differently in the summer months when the higher temperatures can melt the wax that binds the surface together, leading to more kickback. This makes it difficult to come from too far off the pace and the ideal early position is to sit prominent but not hard up against the inside rail, ideally in second, third or fourth place, before kicking on the final bend. HOLLIE DOYLE knows what is required to ride winners at Dunstall Park at this time of year and, while warm temperatures can never be guaranteed in a British summertime, the general rule is to blindly back her mounts here from May to September. This angle has found 35 winners from 158 bets (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £81.21 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.26, A/E = 1.57). What’s impressed me most about her rides here in the summertime is that she is effective over all distances and from any draw – she just seems to have the knack of avoiding the kickback and challenging on the right part of the track. Doyle has five mounts for five different trainers at this evening’s meeting – LETMEBETHEBOSS (5.20), SIR TITAN (6.30), DASHING WILLIE (7.35), SHE IS A KEEPER (8.10) and STALLONE (8.40) – and a buy of her performance index with Spreadex looks warranted. Fixed odds punters can combine her mounts in an each-way Lucky 31 with Spreadex.
Recommendation: Buy HOLLIE DOYLE in Wolverhampton Jockeys
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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