Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsLens readers with his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew bids to get the new week off to a flyer with two recommended bets/trades at Carlisle and Lingfield, August 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
4.45 LINGFIELD
The ground at Lingfield is officially ‘good to soft, soft in places (watered)’ and that will certainly suit the trio of runners by Night Of Thunder in this 7f novice contest – Apothesis, FARO DI NOTTE and Valkyrja, all of whom are bred to appreciate some cut. Backing the sire’s progeny on the Flat in Britain/Ireland, on good to soft or softer going (according to race times, not the official going), would have found 96 winners from 500 (19.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £90.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 76.99, A/E = 1.25). Apothesis (7-4) and Upscale (11-4) head the early betting but the value call is FARO DI NOTTE who ran faster than the pair of them (according to Proform’s speed figures) when a 20-1 third of ten at Salisbury on last month’s debut for Marcus Tregoning (he also had one run for the Varian stable). Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back FARO DI NOTTE
8.30 CARLISLE
REDARNA tends to come good in high summer, recording form figures in July or August of 5133915421115619226914 (7-22) for a profit of £63.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her last two summer visits to Carlisle have produced wins at 11-1 and 3-1, including a victory in this race, albeit five seasons ago. Dianne Sayer’s veteran could only finish fourth at Hamilton last time, but they didn’t go quick enough for him and the likely faster tempo of this amateur riders’ contest will suit better. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back REDARNA in Carlisle 8.30
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens with fixed odds betting tips
- Check out the latest horse racing results from across the UK.
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