Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to the meetings at Downpatrick and Dundalk for his two recommended bets/trades on Friday, October 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
DOWNPATRICK 3.35
Willie Mullins, by his own high standards, has a modest recent record in early-season (October to December) maiden hurdles, scoring with 58 of the 220 runners (26.4% strike-rate) since 2019 for a loss of £92483 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 74, A/E = 0.78). I discussed this angle prior to the 1.50 at Galway on Tuesday where Mullins’ pair in that maiden hurdle – 2-5 favourite Olympic man (second) and 9-4 second-in Armed And Fabulous (fifth) – were both beaten. Today, he saddles NT FIELD MINNESOTA in this 2m5.5f maiden hurdle and the five-year-old, who has tasted defeat at odds of 4-9f and 9-4f in her two runs under Rules, looks worth taking on again. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose NT FIELD MINNESOTA in Downpatrick 3.35
DUNDALK 8.00
There are two runners I want to side with in this 7f handicap – DANDYVILLE, number 1 on the racecard, and RANSOM, number 2, so a sell of DOUBLE NUMBER OF WINNER with Spreadex is the obvious way to get with the pair. Dandyville was a huge eyecatcher over 6f here on his penultimate start, going down by just a nose to Hispanic despite the race not being run to suit his patient style. He failed to make an impact in the “Bold Lad” Premier Handicap at the Curragh next time, but this is much easier and the return to 7f won’t be a problem. Ransom made a successful racecourse debut in a three-year-old maiden on Lingfield’s Polytrack when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and followed up at Kempton on his reappearance at four for the same yard. The gelded son of Kingman joined Denis Hogan early last year after changing hands for 16,000gns and ran with credit at Dundalk on his stable debut in February, finishing three lengths behind the winner in an 11-1 sixth after failing to settle. That encouraging effort was followed by ten straight defeats on turf but the return to Polytrack at Dundalk in early October saw him back to form with a half-length fourth of 13 in a mile handicap. That run was worthy of an upgrade, as he challenged away from where the action unfolded, and he got back to winning ways over the same trip and track next time. His two Dundalk runs this year produced a win and a neck second to take his full record on Polytrack to 11464112 (4-8) and he should have more to offer for another new yard this winter.
Recommendation: Sell DOUBLE NUMBER OF WINNER in Dundalk 8.00
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