Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew found Turners winner GREY DAWNING (5-2) on Thursday and has three recommended bets/trades at Cheltenham on Friday, March 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHELTENHAM 1.30
With the cream of the Irish four-year-olds finishing in a heap in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival perhaps SALVER can strike a blow for the home team. Gary Moore’s son of Motivator is unbeaten in four starts over hurdles and this strong traveller landed the Grade 2 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow on his penultimate start. Deep ground suits (more rain is forecast today) and he looks a likely improver for a big field/strong pace scenario. He has made the running in the past but I’m expecting Gavin Sheehan to track the pace before switching out wide for a run. Buy t 13 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price (8-1).
Recommendation: Back SALVER in Cheltenham 1.30
CHELTENHAM 2.10
Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins have been responsible for eight of the last nine winners of the County Hurdle and, for the sake of full disclosure, I’ve bet L’EAU DU SUD, FAIVOIR – the two Skelton representatives – as well as the Mullins-trained BIALYSTOK. L’Eau Du Sud’s price has collapsed so he makes little appeal on the spreads, while Bialystok is on the drift, as better ground would have been preferable. That leaves Faivoir, successful at 33-1 in this race 12 months ago and a horse who is clearly best at this time of year. The nine-year-old was beaten by a nose when 11-1 for last Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown where Harry Skelton probably got there too soon. That run took his record from February to Apil to 113113305P152 (5-13), including form figures of 113133152 (4-9) on good to soft or softer going (time based, not the official going verdict). Last week, I did a Cheltenham festival preview night panel with Dan Skelton’s assistant Tom Messenger who suggested that Faivoir was expected to win the Imperial Cup but wouldn’t run here and it looks significant that he makes a quick return to action. Buy at 9 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price (10-1).
Recommendation: Back FAIVOIR in Cheltenham 2.10
CHELTENHAM 4.50
It could pay to looks beyond the obvious in the Mares’ Chase and the recommendation is a buy of SP OF WINNER at 6.75 with Spreadex. Short-priced favourite DINOBLUE has been to the Cheltenham festival twice before, finishing ninth of 19 when 11-8 for the 2022 Dawn Run and going down by six and a half lengths in second when 7-2 favourite for the Grand Annual. Her only previous run beyond 2m1f saw her finished fourth and today’s 2m4.5f on deep ground is going to test her stamina to the limit. ALLEGORIE DE VASSY jumps out to her right and was beaten when favourite for this race 12 months and the race looks ripe for an upset. Fixed odds punters might want to play small each-way stakes on three of the outsiders – PINK LEGEND, who has placed at 33-1 in this race for the last two years and has won her only other two starts on Cheltenham’s New Course, CAROLE’S PASS, an impressive scorer at Exeter last time, and KESTREL VALLEY, third to Carole’s Pass and last time and likely to force the pace.
Recommendation: Buy SP OF WINNER in Cheltenham 4.50
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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