Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Saturday (November 4th) and Andrew has seven stats-based suggestions at Newmarket, Ascot, Ayr and Chelmsford. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 11.52
GHAIHABAN (system – Too Darn Hot, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Too Darn Hot usually appreciate muddy conditions, landing seven of their 29 starts on actual (based on race times) soft or heavy going for a profit of £14.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. GHAIHABAN also qualifies as a bet for me on a few Andrew Balding second-time out two-year-old angles and is taken to build on her debut second of 15 in a soft-ground 6f Windsor novice contest.
NEWMARKET 1.37
I LOVE PARIS (systems – Too Darn Hot, soft or heavy going & Ed Walker nursery debutants, 7f+ on turf)
I LOVE PARIS qualifies as a bet for me on the same breeding angle as GHAIHABAN (see 11.52 Newmarket) and on another interesting system – Ed Walker is nine from 27 with his nursery debutants over 7f or further on turf for a profit of £31.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. His last five such runners have recorded form figures of 11121 (4-5), with the defeat by a neck. I LOVE PARIS went close on soft ground on her debut and will appreciate the step up to 1m1f on her handicap debut after running third over 1m here on her latest outing.
ASCOT 2.05
FUNAMBULE SIVOLA (system – Venetia Williams, first run after wind operation, handicaps, fresh)
Venetia Williams does well with her handicappers on their first start following wind surgery, scoring with 14 of the 45 qualifiers (31.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £59.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had been off the track for at least 150 days were 12 from 31 (+£65.08) and FUNAMBULE SIVOLA could be worth chancing on his first handicap outing since scoring at Doncaster in January 2022.
AYR 4.04
DANNO’S DOLLAR (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing all Sandy Thomson-trained runners from November to January would have found 99 winners from 485 bets (20.4% strike-rate) for a massive profit of £270.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. DANNO’S DOLLAR fits the bill in this newcomers bumper.
ASCOT 4.15
CHAUFFEUR DRIVEN (system – David Pipe, Ascot bumpers)
David Pipe has a seven from 12 record in national hunt flat races at Ascot for a profit of £31.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. Four of the five beaten horses also finished in the frame , suggesting that CHAUFFEUR DRIVEN can make an impact on his debut.
CHELMSFORD 4.30
URBAN SPRAWL (system – Iffraaj, first-time cheekpieces, all-weather handicaps)
URBAN SPRAWL caught the eye when third over course and distance on his penultimate start, doing best of those to race up with the strong early pace. The cheekpieces go on today and that’s been a positive punting angle where progeny of sire Iffraaj are concerned, with the all-weather handicappers landing ten of their 85 starts for a profit of £6.08. Those running over a trip of 1m or shorter were eight from 51 for a profit of £30.75.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
COMPTON BAY (system – New Bay handicappers, top-three finish last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a great record on the back of a top-three finish, with the handicappers landing 83 of their 293 starts (28.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £122.78 to a £1 level stake at SP. The strike-rate is higher on the all-weather (35.4%) than on turf (26%) and COMPTON BAY, who took a step back in the right direction when a best-of-the-closers third at Wolverhampton last time, can get off the mark.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
