Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Aintree, Kelso and Chelmsford for his six stats-based picks on Saturday, November 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
AINTREE 1.35
OMAR MARETTI (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
OMAR MARETTI reverts to hurdles after falling in a handicap chase at Newcastle in the spring and is unbeaten in two runs in this sphere. Progeny of Fame And Glory tend to improve as they get older, with the eight and nine-year-olds (the sire’s oldest crop) having a combined scored of 54 winners from 425 runners (12.7%) for a profit of £82.88 to the usual £1 stake.
AINTREE 2.10
DJELO (system – Venetia Williams handicap chasers in November)
This century, had we bet all Venetia Williams-trained handicap chasers in the month of November (prior to yesterday’s racing) we’d have won 118 of our 604 bets (19.5%) and made a huge profit of £203.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. DJELO, successful over hurdles on his seasonal/stable debut last term, can make a winning start over the larger obstacles.
KELSO 2.50
CARRIGEEN CASTLE (system – Micky Hammond stable switchers, handicap hurdles)
Micky Hammond has a useful record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, with the handicap hurdlers landing seven of their 56 starts for a profit of £14.50. Since 2018, the score is four from 24 (+£30.00) with several beaten horses running well in defeat, including a 40-1 second. CARRIGEEN CASTLE, the mount of Brian Hughes, won an Irish point in February and could go well for his new connections.
KELSO 3.25
SO THEY SAY (system – Malinas, jumps handicaps, young horses)
Younger progeny of the sire Malinas have a good record in handicap chases and hurdles, with those aged seven or less landing 122 of their 672 starts (18.2%) for a profit of £66.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. Point winner SO THEY SAY showed promise in two runs in maiden/novice company last term and can make a winning handicap debut on the back of a wind operation.
CHELMSFORD 5.30
SURGING TIDE (system – top four from the front on Newcastle (AW) round course last time)
It remains difficult to win from the front over trips of 1m2f or further on Newcastle’s Tapeta track and those who run well (finishing in the top four) under forcing tactics have a good record at the next time of asking. Backing all 289 qualifiers would have found 60 winners (20.8%) for a profit of £95.81 to the usual £1 stake. SURGING TIDE couldn’t hold on after making the running in a 1m2f Newcastle last time, finishing a close-up third, and will be better suited to Chelmsford.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
ELJAYTEE (system – Rock Of Gibraltar, Chelmsford draw angle)
Progeny of sire Rock Of Gibralatar have a 25 from 128 record on Chelmsford’s Polytrack (19.5%), with those drawn in stall6 or lower landing 24 of their 98 starts (24.5%) for a profit of £24.38. The handicappers were 22 from 76 (29%) for a profit of £40.60 and ELJAYTEE (stall 1) could be the way to go in this 1m2f contest. John Berry’s five-year-old finishing second on turf last time and was fourth at 66-1 on his latest course assignment.
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