Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads Goodwood, Punchestown, Newmarket and Yarmouth for his five stats-based selections on Saturday, May 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
GOODWOOD 2.05
NOVUS (system – ground preference)
The Moore-trained NOVUS has a cracking record on actual good to soft or softer going (based on Proform’s going allowance, not the official verdict), recording form figures of 11211 (4-5) for a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The sole defeat came by just three-quarters of a length at the hands of Choisya, who re-opposes today, and she can gain her revenge. She was only seventh of nine at Newmarket’s Craven meeting on last month’s return to action but the ground was too fast, she would have needed the run after a six-month absence and her patient running style was at a huge disadvantage.
PUNCHESTOWN 3.42
ASHROE DIAMOND (system – mares only races)
The Willie Mullins-trained ASHROE DIAMOND ran a stinker at the Cheltenham festival, pulling up behind stablemate Lossiemouth in the Mares’ Hurdle when very weak in the betting. She raced freely in the first-time hood that day and, on better ground today, she might be able to bounce back. Her record when racing against her own sex reads 141111P (5-7) for a profit of £5.90 and she can be supported each-way or backed in the ‘without Lossiemouth’ market.
GOODWOOD 4.30
MAGHLAAK (system – Charles Hills, first run since gelded, handicaps)
Charles Hills has a solid recent record in handicaps with runners having their first start since a gelding operation, scoring with ten of the 58 qualifiers since the beginning of 2019 for a profit of £25.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Plenty of the beaten horses made the frame, often at big prices (including 33-1 and 20-1 in the same race at Newmarket last month) and MAGHLAAK, who has course form in the mud, looks a likely improver this season.
NEWMARKET 5.15
LOVE BILLY BOY (system – Richard Hannon, second run since gelded)
Since the beginning of 2018, Richard Hannon has a 26 from 155 record (16.8%) strike-rate with runners having their second start after a gelding operation and backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £19.02 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 17.50, A/E =1.49). LOVE BILLY BOY would have needed his comeback run when an 18-1 eighth of 18 over 6f here at last month’s Craven meeting where he was disadvantaged by trying to come from off the pace on a tailwind-affected day (his high draw was also unhelpful). The patiently-ridden sixth landed a gamble on his next start and perhaps the three-year-old can follow suit over this extra furlong. I’m not sure if his stall 2 draw will be an advantage or nor but he’s still worth a bet.
YARMOUTH 5.20
BENEVENTO (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a fine record with racecourse debutants, regardless of age and who trains them. They’ve scored with 42 of the 197 qualifiers (21.3%) for a profit of £30.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.80, A/E = 1.24). The youngsters have been slow to get going this year but breeze-up purchase BENEVENTO should know his job and is worth a small interest.
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