Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew hit the crossbar with three seconds (9-1, 8-1 & 15-2) on Friday and has five stats-based picks on Saturday, May 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 2.05
ONE MORNING (system – Ascot May meeting, 1m fillies’ handicap pace angle)
The 1m Class 2 fillies’ handicap at Ascot’s May meeting often goes to a horse who finished second, third or fourth last time out under a patient ride, tactics most effective on the straight course here. This system has thrown up six winners from 27 runners for a profit of £31.50. This year, the three qualifiers are Julia Augusta, Sly Madam and ONE MORNING, with preference for the last-named.
LINGFIELD 4.20
THE DEFIANT (system – class barrier, surface preference)
THE DEFIANT performs best on Polytrack in Class 5 or lower company, recording form figures of 1114217 (4-7) for a profit of £14.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. He had excuses for the seventh place (badly hampered) and has since finished second on turf at Brighton. He’s had wind surgery since we last saw him and looks backable now returning to his optimum conditions.
NOTTINGHAM 5.20
TIGERTEN (system – Ian Williams, last-time out winners, recent run, turf handicaps)
Ian Williams has a cracking record in turf handicaps with last-time-out winners who are returned to the track quickly (less than ten days), scoring with 27 of the 65 qualifiers this century (41.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.95. TIGERTEN, a winner at Salisbury nine days ago, looks good value to follow up.
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LEICESTER 6.40
AUTUMN FLIGHT (system – stall 1, sprint handicaps, Leicester)
As a general rule, the ground is slower on the stands’ side rail at Leicester, putting high-drawn runners at a disadvantage in sprints (5f-6f races). In sprint handicaps of 7-11 runners we could bet stall 1 blindly and make a profit and following this system on good or softer going would have found 26 winners from 128 bets since 2011 for a profit of £60.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. AUTUMN FLIGHT qualifies in this 6f 0-60 contest.
LEICESTER 7.40
BLIND BEGGAR (system – Equiano, soft/heavy going, handicaps on the Flat)
Progeny of the sire Equiano usually appreciate proper soft or heavy going and had we backed them all in handicaps in Britain (Flat only) we’d have found 51 winners from 371 bets (13.8%) for a profit of £22.88 to the usual £1 stake. Those who’d raced within the past six weeks fared even better, landing 48 of their 312 starts (15.4%) for a profit of £63.38. BLIND BEGGAR, nicely drawn in stall 4, only beat one home when favourite at Redcar last time but had the worst of the draw in stall 12 and can be forgiven that. He finished second of 19 at Doncaster on his penultimate start and can get back on track tonight.
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Related
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