Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in good form this week and starts the weekend with six stats-based picks across five races on Saturday, March 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWBURY 1.20
FORETESCUE (system – 10yos in veterans’ handicap chases, finished sixth or worse last time out)
Ten-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part in veterans’ handicap chases, win more than their fair share of these contests and the value lies in supporting those who finished sixth or worse last time out. The logic being that they were often facing younger/progressive rivals on their latest start, maybe even conceding weight to them, but are now running against rivals of their own age or older. This angle has produced 79 winners from 514 bets (15.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £117.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. Henry Daly’s FORTESCUE was only seventh at Sandown last time but will find today’s company more to his liking. SECRET REPRIEVE also qualifies on the same system and could be worth a saver.
KELSO 1.42
SERIOUS OPERATOR (system – Malinas, young horses in jumps handicaps)
Younger progeny (aged seven or less) of the sire Malinas have a solid record in handicap hurdles/chases, landing 132 of their 737 starts (17.9%) for a profit of £64.93 to a £1 level stake at SP. On good to soft or softer going that becomes 86 from 471 (18.3%) for a profit of £86.52 (expected winners = 70.44, A/E = 1.22). SERIOUS OPERATOR finished a good fifth in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time, a race that is already working out well, and since joining Lucinda Russell has won three of his four starts immediately following a defeat.
NEWBURY 3.32
ZOFFEE (system – 8yos in veterans’ handicap hurdles)
Veterans’ handicap hurdles are far less common than the handicap chase equivalent but youth also tends to be an important factor. Eight-year-olds, the youngest age group allowed to take part, have won 13 of the 75 previous races of this type for a profit of £25.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Six of the previous seven winners of this race were eight-year-olds and the only blank year (2021) produced a 25-1 third from the trio of big-priced qualifiers. ZOFFEE, the only eight-year-old in today’s line-up, could be worth chancing despite a poor effort at Taunton on his stable debut 54 days ago.
KEMPTON 5.05
SQUEAKER & BEAUTY GENERATION (system – Marco Botti, AW handicaps, fresh, 3-4yos)
Marco Botti is profitable to follow blindly with fresh horses in all-weather handicaps, with the three and four-year-olds faring especially well. Those who were returning from a break of at least 40 days were 49 from 256 (19.1%) since the spring of 2016 for a profit of £115.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has both SQUEAKER and BEAUTY GENERATION in this 1m handicap and I’m splitting my stake between the pair.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
SI SI LA BONNE (system – Kodi Bear, 5f-7f Wolverhampton)
Progeny of the sire Kodi Bear do well over the shorter trips (5f-7f) at Dunstall Park, landing 16 of their 97 starts for a profit of £58.48. SI SI LA BONNE was only fifth at Kempton last time but ran a fine 14-1 half-length second over course and distance the time before on her only previous visit to this venue. She can break her duck, despite a wide draw.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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