Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads Beverley, Bangor, Lingfield and Chepstow for his five stats-based selections on Saturday, June 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
BEVERLEY 2.05
AVIATION TIME (system – Richard Hughes, winning AW debutants next time out)
AVIATION TIME is stuck out wide in stall 10 in the Hilary Needler but the track at Beverley is being watered and I’m convinced that they chuck more of the wet stuff on the inside rail in an attempt to level up any draw bias towards low numbers, though often serve to swing the bias towards the higher numbers. Plenty of winners of this race have been drawn high and Richard Hughes has a fine record with all-weather debut winners on their second career start, scoring with eight of the 13 qualifiers for a profit of £22.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. Aviation Time, successful at Kempton on her debut last month, could be the value in the race.
BEVERLEY 4.25
AMASAR (system – Charlie Johnston, Beverley handicaps, 1m4f+)
Many years ago, I wrote up the ‘Mark Johnston in Beverley handicaps of 1m4f+’ system in the now defunct newspaper Raceform Update and it’s still a profitable angle for his son, Charlie. Backing the yard’s runners in these contests since the start of 2012 would have found 30 winners from 102 bets (29.4%) for a profit of £35.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished in the top six last time out were 30 from 81 (37%) for a profit of £56.17. AMASAR ran as though the outing were needed when fourth of six at Haydock on last month’s reappearance and can break his duck at the sixth attempt.
BANGOR 4.35
GENTLE CONNECTIONS (system – Gentlewave, third chase start)
Progeny of the sire Gentlewave have a solid record over fences, landing 29 of their 144 starts (21.1%) for a profit of £23.60 (expected winners = 20.01, A/E = 1.45). Curiously, the ones who were having their third start over the larger obstacles were six from 16 for a profit of £19.30, with four of the beaten horses finishing second (12-1, 7-1, 5-1 and 9-4). GENTLE CONNECTIONS didn’t show a huge amount in her two runs over fences at Warwick last spring but could be worth chancing to defy a 392-day absence.
LINGFIELD 6.45
MORCAR (system – Richard Hannon handicappers in first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2015 the Hannon yard has a 17 from 149 record (11.4%) with handicappers in first-time blinkers for a profit of £65.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. MORCAR’s forcing style was no help over 1m4f on the Polytrack here last time but the return to turf and cut back to 1m2f can see him in a better light. He finished third by three-quarters of a length in a similar course and distance contest last month and is 3lb lower this evening.
CHEPSTOW 9.00
TOMORROW DAY (system – damsire Haafhd, 3yo+, Flat races of 7f+)
Backing runners who have Haafhd as their damsire is a good angle in Flat races over 7f or further, with 157 of the 1215 qualifiers (13%) scoring for a profit of £137.66 (expected winners = 128.07, A/E = 1.23). Throwing out the runs on good to soft or softer going improves the profit further and with Chepstow’s ground on the fast side of good Mark Usher’s TOMORROW DAY could be the answer to this 1m4f contest, despite taking a big step up in trip.
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