Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Navan, Sandown, Leicester, Haydock, Doncaster and Wolverhampton for seven stats-based picks on Saturday, April 27th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NAVAN 1.45
NEW THEORY (system – Starspangledbanner, 2yo debut, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Starspangledbanner do well when making their racecourse debut on turf, landing 30 of their 205 starts (14.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £36.11 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.54, A/E = 1.46). January foal NEW THEORY fits the bill and is likely to be more forward than the majority of his rivals.
SANDOWN 3.35
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE (system – course direction)
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE often jumps out to his right when racing on left-handed tracks and is clearly best when racing in a clockwise direction. His last-time-out Ascot success took his record right-handed to 111121 (5-6) and his prominent running style will be an asset in the bet365 Gold Cup.
LEICESTER 4.20
BLETCHLEY STORM (system – Night Of Thunder female progeny, good to soft or softer going)
BLETCHLEY STORM could only finish eighth of the 12 runners at Brighton last week, but the officially good ground was plenty lively enough and his patient style was at a disadvantage. The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to appreciate today’s soft going – her sire’s female progeny are 44 from 206 on good to soft or softer going (21.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £90.34 – and she finished runner-up in the mud at Nottingham/Windsor last spring.
HAYDOCK 4.28
OFFER AND RECEIVE (system – Karl Burke, early-season Haydock races)
Karl Burke tends to target Haydock in the early months of the Flat season, scoring with 37 of the 262 (14.1%) qualifiers before the end of May for a profit of £64.86 to the usual £1 stake. OFFER AND RECEIVE was a winner on his seasonal debut last year and is unlikely to have an issue with the deep ground.
DONCASTER 5.40
TORFRIDA (system – Pam Sly, 150+ days absence)
This century, backing Pam Sly-trained runners (Flat or jumps) after a break of at least 150 days would have found 33 winners from 287 bets (11.5%) for a profit of £131.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. TORFRIDA finished third at 12-1 on her debut last term before scoring at the second time of asking here at Doncaster on soft ground. She failed to add to that in three subsequent runs but the return to Town Moor can see her double her career tally.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
TIME TO RULE (system – Time Test, 1m+, Tapeta)
TIME TO RULE is a left-field selection for this 8.6f novice stakes, as Richard Hannon’s three-year-old could only finish a 28-1 ninth of 11 at Newmarket on his recent debut. However, he was ridden patiently in a tailwind-affected race when it paid to be on the front end and his breeding suggests that he’ll improve for the switch to Tapeta. Progeny of Time Test are 18 from 107 over 1m or further on this surface for a huge profit of £215.85 to a £1 level stake at SP and he’s nicely drawn in stall 3. For information, LADYPACKSAPUNCH also qualifies as a bet for me on the same system in Wolverhampton’s 9.00.
DONCASTER 7.45
SPANISH POET (system – Ralph Beckett, second run since gelded, handicaps only)
Ralph Beckett has a great record with handicappers on their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with 23 of the 94 qualifiers for a huge profit of £122.09 to a £1 level stake at SP. SPANISH POET also gets the first-time blinkers – another positive angle for the Beckett yard – and can be supported in this 1m4f contest.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
17/03/23
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
NO CODE REQUIRED
Claim Offer
Learn More
0
0
18+ BeGambleAware.org, T&Cs apply. New customers, opt-in and deposit within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 free bets. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 1.3 or greater, stake not returned. T&C’s Apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
