Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew hit the crossbar with THANKS DAD on Thursday (2nd by a short head, 9-1) and has three stats-based picks on Friday, April 26th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
DONCASTER 2.33
SURREY SHADOW (system – Tom Clover, gelded newcomers)
Tom Clover has a six from 37 record with gelded newcomers for a profit of £69.00 to a £1 level stake, with the latest qualifier, Nifty Fifty, landing some nice bets when scoring at odds of 11-2 at Yarmouth earlier this week. He’s just one from 22 with the all-weather qualifiers but five from 14 on turf and the last two to run at Doncaster both won (18-1 and 15-2), suggesting that SURREY SHADOW could out-run odds as big as 33-1.
SANDOWN 4.45
MAGNUM OPUS (system – Crisford yard, handicap debut)
Handicap debutants from the yard of Simon & Ed Crisford have a 69 from 276 record (25% strike-rate) for a profit of £12.68 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 55.65, A/E = 1.24). Those running in Class 4 or lower company on turf were 32 from 112 (28.6%) for a profit of £22.39 and MAGNUM OPUS, successful over 1m at Chelmsford in November when we last saw him, can double up on his reappearance.
NEWCASTLE 8.30
ERNEST RUTHERFORD (system – Tim Easterby, second run after a break, April)
Tim Easterby’s April runners often do well on their second starts after a break of at least 120 days, landing 19 of their 145 starts since 2012 for a profit of £45.50 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. ERNEST RUTHERFORD, nicely drawn in stall 11 for this 5f handicap, shaped well in a 14-1 three-length fourth ay Southwell earlier this month – his first start for 158 days – and he took a big step forward from his first to second start last term, improving his RPR (Racing Post Rating) by 11lb when going down by two and a half lengths in an 18-1 fifth at Pontefract.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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