Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew starts the New Year with six stats-based selections at Catterick, Cheltenham, Musselburgh and Newcastle on Monday, January 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CATTERICK 12.45
HAWKSEYE VIEW (system – Sue Smith, January)
One of the simplest systems I like to follow is backing Sue Smith’s runners in the month of January. This angle has produced 63 winners from 257 bets (24.5% strike-rate) since 2014 for a huge profit of £163.57 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 38.84, A/E = 1.62). This was a profitable system in nine of those ten years, with the exception in 2021 when the unusually small number of qualifiers (six) produced just one winner and a loss of £4.43. At Catterick only, the score is 19 from 48 (39.6%) for a profit of £107.72. HAWKSEYE VIEW, third at 28-1 behind well-backed stablemate Rich Spirit (5-2 second favourite) here on December 19th, can get the ball rolling in 2024.
CHELTENHAM 2.40
ED KEEPER (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, won last time out, speed angle)
Last-time out winners have a great record in handicap hurdles over 3m or further, provided they recorded a Proform speed figure of at least 67 for that victory. Since 2012, the score is 128 from 469 (27.3%) for a profit of £135.50 to the usual £1 stake. ED KEEPER impressed visually and on the clock at Newbury last time and can follow up.
MUSSELBURGH 3.30
REPUBLICAN (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham does remarkably well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 13 of the 33 qualifiers (39.4%) for a profit of £56.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s five from ten with the runners Oliver Sherwood brought with him when taking up the assistant trainer role and REPUBLICAN will appreciate the soft ground and sharp right-handed track.
CATTERICK 3.39
JUST JESS (system – Sue Smith, January)
Like Hawkseye View (see above), JUST JESS is a qualifier on the Sue Smith January angle. The eight-year-old won this race 12 months ago and is 2lb lower this time around.
NEWCASTLE 3.45
GINCIDENT (system – Cotai Glory, geldings, all-weather)
Gelded progeny of the sire Cotai Glory have a good record on the all-weather, landing 37 of their 237 starts (16.6%) for a profit of £117.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. GINCIDENT is up in class after his Wolverhampton fourth just 48 hours ago but his stall 14 draw looks useful, he’s 1-1 at this track and he could sneak into the places at a big price.
NEWCASTLE 4.45
SOMMELIER (system – Marco Botti, all-weather handicaps, fresh)
Since the spring of 2016, Marco Botti is 145 from 1064 (13.6% strike-rate) in all-weather handicaps, though backing them blind would have returned a loss of £59.61 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, those who were running fresh (after a break of at least 40 days) were 54 from 316 (17.1%) for a profit of £119.74. SOMMELIER isn’t best drawn in stall 2 but has bolted in both start since gelded and has been freshened up by a six-week break.
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